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| Trump's core supporters won't reject him. It would mean rejecting their own values. | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: Feb 11 2018, 01:04 PM (700 Views) | |
| Coast2coast | Feb 13 2018, 08:23 PM Post #41 |
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I'm not the one claiming that a love of the nation is dependent on the politics of the individual. So what are you talking about? |
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| Colors Plus | Feb 13 2018, 09:27 PM Post #42 |
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Donald Trump stands a historically good chance, come 2020, of getting re-elected the 45th U.S. president. With the exceptions of 1976 and 1980, all of the 20th-century presidential elections which flipped party occupancy in the White House ended up seeing that pickup-winning party hold the presidency with the next presidential election cycle. This was true in 1912/1916 (Democratic); 1920/1924 (Republican); 1932/1936 (Democratic); 1952/1956 (Republican); 1960/1964 (Democratic); 1968/1972 (Republican); 1980/1984 (Republican); 1992/1996 (Democratic); 2000/2004 (Republican); and 2008/2012 (Democratic). This counts all individuals—those who died in office and had to be replaced and all those who were party-pickup winners who won re-election. 1976 was a Democratic pickup year for Jimmy Carter (who unseated Republican incumbent Gerald Ford). 1980 was a Republican pickup year for Ronald Reagan (who unseated Democratic incumbent Jimmy Carter). The pattern is that, after a given presidential election results in a party switch, it doesn’t often play out that the nation’s voters will flip the presidency back to the party which lost it from four years earlier. 2016 was a Republican presidential pickup year for Donald Trump. This historical pattern points to the advantage of Election 2020 being that of a Republican hold. As for your “40% won’t win in 2020” comment, it is not about the percentage of votes received. Bill Clinton never won the U.S. Popular Vote. He won a plurality in both 1992 and 1996. Should Trump get re-elected in 2020, he may very well win pluralities with both of his elections. So, it’s a lot more than that. In 2016, Donald Trump received 45.93 percent to the 48.02 percent for Hillary Clinton in the U.S. Popular Vote. Percentage-points margin was +2.09 (Hillary)/–2.09 (Trump) In 2012, Democratic incumbent president Barack Obama was re-elected with 51.01 percent to the 47.15 percent for Mitt Romney. Percentage-points margin was +3.86 (Obama)/–3.86 (Romney). The 2012-to-2016 raw-vote margin was an estimated shift of +2.1 million toward Republican/Donald Trump. Obama beat Romney by about +4.9 million. Hillary held the popular vote, but not Electoral College, by about +2.8 million. She underperformed the Obama numbers. That also meant a 2012-to-2016 shift of Republican/Trump +1.77. Shifting in the direction of Republican/Trump by +1.77 is why the 2012-to-2016 map saw no states flip from Republican to Democratic but from Democratic to Republican. From that 2.1 million Republican/Donald Trump shift, approximately +1.7 million came from Rust Belt pickups, for Trump, of Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. (They comprise +64 electoral votes.) Trump won the 24 states which voted for Mitt Romney, worth 206 electoral votes, and he also won pickups from Florida (29 electoral votes), Iowa (6), Michigan (16), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10), and the 2nd Congressional District of Maine (1). Total gain was plus +100. Outcome: Trump with 30 states, plus Maine #02, for an initial electoral-vote score of 306. Ranking the carried states (and Maine #02) for Trump, for their percentage-points margins, and in descending order, Trump’s No. 28 ranked Wisconsin (+0.76) was the tipping-point state which gave him his 270th electoral vote. No. 29 Pennsylvania (+0.72) gave Trump his 290th electoral vote. And No. 30 Michigan (+0.22) gave him his 306th electoral vote. In 2020, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan—the first a Top 20 and the second and third are Top 10 populous states—will once again vote for the winner. In the last ten elections of 1980–2016, Pennsylvania and Michigan voted the same—and they voted for the winners from 8 of 10 elections. And they sided with popular-vote winner Al Gore in 2000. Wisconsin differed from them only in 1988. Excellent records of siding with presidential winners from this Rust Belt trio! If the Democrats go with a corporate Democrat—yet another member of the Bill Clinton/Barack Obama/Hillary Clinton, DLC/Third Way wing—they will lose. And that means they will fail to unseat Donald Trump. Since most incumbents who get re-elected to a second term gain support (Barack Obama was a rare exception), I would not be surprised to see a re-elected Trump erase those –2.1 million raw-vote and –2.09 percentage-points margins and win a 2020 Republican pickup of the U.S. Popular Vote to go along with a Republican hold of the Electoral College (and, with that, the presidency). If that happens, he will retain Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan—and, after that, flip at least one state which narrowly carried in 2016 for losing Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Here is a reminder of the 2016 electoral map. (Those states in solid red were Republican holds; those in light red were pickups.) ![]() Here is an estimate of the 2020 electoral map should Trump get re-elected. (This is based on increased national support for re-electing Trump. Take the first map and add those which appear in yellow—carried narrowly in 2016 by Hillary Clinton—to make them tossups. Glitches: Maine, the statewide which is worth 2 electoral votes, should not be in purple but in yellow. And, for some strange reason, Nebraska, with all its electoral votes in the Republican/Trump column, should not be colored at all let alone appear in purple. The +16 electoral votes, as potential, are accurately counted.) ![]() Edited by Colors Plus, Feb 13 2018, 09:29 PM.
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| Robert Stout | Feb 14 2018, 12:59 AM Post #43 |
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One more and we do a gangbang on liberals.................
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| Jesus can raise the dead, but he can't fix stupid | |
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| Robert Stout | Feb 14 2018, 01:10 AM Post #44 |
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Good analysis... I believe the only chance Democrats would have to win is to have Soros fund David Duke to run on a Reformed Nazi Party ticket to split the Republican vote..............
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| Jesus can raise the dead, but he can't fix stupid | |
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| 70-101 | Feb 14 2018, 01:15 AM Post #45 |
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Trump's base has nothing else in life to look forward to since they've become a disenfranchised minority. So they cling delusionally to their last remaining God - Saint Donald of Mar-a-Lago. I wonder how it feels to be a minority? Probably not good.
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| Robert Stout | Feb 14 2018, 01:32 AM Post #46 |
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Liberals like you are a majority in your mom's basement...There you have the thrill of victory..............
Edited by Robert Stout, Feb 14 2018, 01:33 AM.
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| Jesus can raise the dead, but he can't fix stupid | |
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| peewee | Feb 14 2018, 02:28 AM Post #47 |
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Do any of you who predicted a Clinton win get tired of trying to predict anything? |
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| Coast2coast | Feb 14 2018, 03:54 AM Post #48 |
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I admit I had more faith in the American people that they would never put that bad joke in the White House, he was such an obvious con artist and shyster. (Think Steve Martin in "Leap of Faith") Was my faith misplaced? Depends on whether you are looking at the results or the nearly three million majority for candidate Clinton. Either way I was disappointed. I had more faith in our electorate than I should have. But maybe things are turning around. (Think Judge Moore) |
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| ringotuna | Feb 14 2018, 05:46 AM Post #49 |
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Jake nails it to the wall... In a far less sophisticated and flowery way, Trump ran the same values base "hope n change" campaign that Obama did in 08. The rhetoric and target audience were different, but the message was the same. Feeling disenfranchised by the Obama administration, the "Bible and Gun clinging deplorable voters" voted for a change. Like Trump supporters today, Obama's supporters forgave, dismissed, and made excuses for Obama's unfulfilled campaign promises because they perceived him to be at one with their own values. And like Trump's core, Obama's core remained loyal to him throughout his tenure. For the most part, the article is pretty accurate in it's description of typical staunch core supporters who view criticism of their candidate/leader as an assault on their own values. In some cases that view has merit however those criticisms are sometimes an expression from those who themselves voted their own values. I see nothing wrong with that. That being said, despite a certain amount of self-denial among core supporters of both presidents, I have to ask, regardless of conservative or liberal values...What the hell is wrong with values voting? It's subtle, but with a few well placed adjectives, the author seems to want to put a stank on the most common and most honest of voting motivations. |
| Ringoism: Never underestimate the advantages of being underestimated. | |
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| ringotuna | Feb 14 2018, 05:56 AM Post #50 |
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^^^^ No surprises there. ![]() CT is lurking...Let's see what kind of "insight" he has to offer.
Edited by ringotuna, Feb 14 2018, 05:58 AM.
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| Ringoism: Never underestimate the advantages of being underestimated. | |
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| CautionaryTales | Feb 14 2018, 06:02 AM Post #51 |
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There is nothing wrong or right about your support of Trump. His values are clear and his motives are also clear. He values himself and his prosperity and power. Everything else exists to serve that end. Values are subjective. I think those values are not the values we need to have running this country. I think they are too often counterproductive to the good of the country Trumpsters disagree as is their right. Those Trumpsters have shared the values of their idol and they are welcome to that. What they cannot do is deny membership in the cult they have joined. Edited by CautionaryTales, Feb 14 2018, 06:04 AM.
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Have you paid your internet taxes? | |
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| ringotuna | Feb 14 2018, 06:28 AM Post #52 |
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^^ I suppose "insight" was a bit out of reach. No surprise there.
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| Ringoism: Never underestimate the advantages of being underestimated. | |
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| longbich | Feb 14 2018, 09:40 AM Post #53 |
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For the rest of us in the World we are thankful that there isn't another W. |
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The Bird of Time has but a little way to fly- And Lo, the Bird is on the wing. "Omar" | |
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| Alt Right PEPE | Feb 14 2018, 10:35 AM Post #54 |
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Money controls the world and Trump is making money for the big boys. Trump has a guaranteed second term. I will be putting money down in Vegas on it, just like I did the last election! That whole FBI/Russia thing will actually work out in his favor: WATCH P S, that new car I bought with the winnings last time, is still purring along... In Trump we trust: ![]() ![]() Edited by Alt Right PEPE, Feb 14 2018, 10:45 AM.
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"Be polite, be friendly. But have a plan to kill everyone you meet." Gen Mattis | |
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| Alt Right PEPE | Feb 14 2018, 10:42 AM Post #55 |
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Edited by Alt Right PEPE, Feb 14 2018, 10:44 AM.
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"Be polite, be friendly. But have a plan to kill everyone you meet." Gen Mattis | |
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| clone | Feb 14 2018, 12:37 PM Post #56 |
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Director @ Center for Advanced Memetic Warfare
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It's true Trump wants prosperity and power....for America.... If he wanted more of it for himself he would have simply wrote Hillary a check and given her his celebrity endorsement. He could have gotten all kinds of gov't largess for infrastructure and other building projects. Retained or even elevated his celebrity status, kept the Apprentice, still been much beloved in public and remain a darling of the left. Hell an Ambassadorship could have been easily lined up. His family would also have continued their charmed life without fear of violence or SJW and media scorn. Trump gave all the above up...for MAGA....the message he has been consistent with for over 30 years... Watch and learn from this unaired interview.... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nAgJAxkALyc |
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Only liberals can choose not to go down the road to widespread, systematic violence. | |
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| CautionaryTales | Feb 14 2018, 01:26 PM Post #57 |
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I don’t think he expected to win, just to come close enough o sell more steaks and fraud University wallpaper. That said, he won and now is fully leveraging it to his advantage first and nothing else matters to him. He’s like a blind man walking barefoot in a Shiatte filled barnyard. |
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Have you paid your internet taxes? | |
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| CautionaryTales | Feb 14 2018, 01:29 PM Post #58 |
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Once the laundry is fully on display I think he’s going to regret winning. |
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Have you paid your internet taxes? | |
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| clone | Feb 14 2018, 01:33 PM Post #59 |
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Director @ Center for Advanced Memetic Warfare
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Well your opinions on the election have been so spot on.....quite the Nostradamus
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Only liberals can choose not to go down the road to widespread, systematic violence. | |
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| Mr. Tik | Feb 14 2018, 06:40 PM Post #60 |
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Ringo having a go at my leg again
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You may be a conservative republican..if you are pro life until you get your mistress knocked up | |
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