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Argentina Crisis: Financial turmoil could spark market chaos, experts warn
Topic Started: May 16 2018, 05:14 AM (1,025 Views)
Che On The Rocks

W A Mozart
 
:popcorn: It is so very difficult to get good information on what is taking place in Argentina with ole Che flooding this thread with news of more strikes and movements and protests and placard-carrying, disgruntled, Argentinians.
These protests tend to be underreported by the Western MSM, so i'll keep going. :cool:

W A Mozart
 
Right. Sure. Hidden message: "We want our power back so that we can throw everyone out in the government, replace them with 'our' people and then spend and spend and spend till the cows come home! Er. we've seen this act before, ..... ;)
In Venezuela? :devil:

W A Mozart
 
..."Argentina is saddled with more than $320 billion in external debt, equivalent to 57.1 percent of GDP, much of it denominated in dollars." ..
That! Let's check the external debt:
Posted Image
OMG! RIGHT-WING, CONSERVATIVE, CAPITALIST MAURICIO MACRI PRACTICALLY DOUBLED THE EXTERNAL DEBT! CRIMINAL!

W A Mozart
 
So, who caused the debt,...
Macri & the Global Financial Maffia.

W A Mozart
 
...and how did it happen?
Macri & the Global Financial Maffia.

W A Mozart
 
The only explanation is found with the Economist:
Which is a Global Financial Maffia's mouthpiece. Right.

W A Mozart
 
Here is the heart of the problem in Argentina:
Yeah, Cristina. "When he took office in December 2015, the economy was in complete disarray."

But Macri didn't say so, in early 2016:
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So? Macri lied and the investors/loaners were duped?
Or The Economist is making... err... "creative revisionism" of Cristina administration? :cool:

W A Mozart
 
So, Cristina and her unwashed ilk, want to return to power, and, ....and, ....do the same again.
That is quite a possibility, now:

Argentina Needs The Best IMF Deal Ever, Or It's Curtains For Macri In 2019
Quote:
 
+The good news for Macri is that he has time to make this work.
+“The investment case for Argentina sovereign debt still stands
Posted Image
Union workers, along with members of social, political and students organizations, demonstrate against the government's negotiations with the International Monetary Fund in Buenos Aires, on May 17, 2018. This has to be the best IMF rescue deal ever implemented or president Mauricio Macri will be voted out of office next year by guys like this that dominate Latin America. Photo by EITAN ABRAMOVICH/AFP/Getty Images.
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What happened to Santiago Maldonado?
What happened to ARA San Juan?
Mapuche Lives Matter!
Stop the political persecution in Argentina!
Stop the looting of Argentina!
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W A Mozart
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Che On The Rocks
May 25 2018, 07:00 AM

Argentina Needs The Best IMF Deal Ever, Or It's Curtains For Macri In 2019
Quote:
 
+The good news for Macri is that he has time to make this work.
+“The investment case for Argentina sovereign debt still stands
Excellent! At least your quoting some good news sources, ....Forbes. Read the article over morning coffee, corn flakes and a banana. Interesting. Many, many years ago, at my college graduation, Malcom Forbes (Steve's father) spoke at our graduation. After the speech I was standing around the podium chit-chatting with one of the Forbes people and, ...and, it turned out to be Steve Forbes. It was fascinating. Then his father died, and he, Steve, became CEO of Forbes. Anyway, I haven't studied this situation to form an absolute opinion, ...yet. But will be working on it, ...focusing on the debt. Forbes said the following with regards to Macri:

Quote:
 
..."The Macri Administration has been forced to make painful economic adjustments over the years. The previous two governments ran Argentina as if it was the Sweden of the South—heavily subsidized and quasi-socialist. Two economies existed: one priced in dollars and one priced in pesos, which had two values. There was the official value and then there was the mercado azul value, which was at least 25% different than the central bank rate and sold illicitly. Macri has spent his last three years in office trying to remove distorting subsidies and fix this two-level currency system." ...


:popcorn:


More later...

Mozart
Edited by W A Mozart, May 25 2018, 08:50 AM.
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W A Mozart
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Further to above...

So, what in the name of the Wide, Wide World of Sports is going-on in Argentina? There is very little in-depth coverage on the subject and that makes the socialists, parading in the streets every day, ...happy. Ah! But I did find a good source for information. An economist from the University of Chicago (read: Milton Friedman... :) ) who gets into the nitty-gritty of what's taking place. Now this, ...this is a good read!

https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2018/05/groundhog-day-in-argentina.html

Basically he says the following:

Quote:
 
Groundhog Day: ...Like Phil Connors (Bill Murray) we got trapped in Punxsutawney by the perfect storm. Last year Congress passed a law changing the tax code which included a new tax on Central Bank debt held by non residents. The new tax became effective on April 25th. The new tax initiated a sell off by non residents which was absorbed by the CB which sold USD 2.1 billon between April 23rd and 25th without the dollar moving one cent (20.25 ARS/USD). The new tax coincided with the increase of the 10 year US treasuries yield and the strengthening of the dollar. The CB thought this was an external shock and that no further actions were going to be needed.


So, basically, ....the Congress of Argentina passed a "tax bill," which came into affect on April 25th. The silly idea here was to tax the non-residents (more money for us, ...hooray!), who quickly bailed on Argentina. They ran, ....causing the CB to throw billions of dollars to support the Peso. They couldn't. Peso rose, confidence fell, ...a crises. That's it in a nutshell.

But, under the comments section here, probably also an econommist, the following point was made:

Quote:
 
...."Argentina's inflation problem begins and ends with money printing. The monetary base has been growing about 30% per year for the past 8-9 years, because the central bank has been financing the government's deficit. The government hasn't been able to reduce the deficit, and they have apparently not tried or have been unable to finance the deficit with legitimate debt.

Selling reserves to stem the decline in the peso is futile if the reduction in reserves does not result in a reduction in the money supply. Imposing a tax on foreign holders of central bank debt is a terrible idea, since that only weakens demand for pesos at a time when their supply is super-abundant. It's time for some supply-side thinking in Argentina, coupled with some good, old-fashioned fiscal discipline of the spending-cut variety." ...



Now, that's good stuff!

More later....

Mozart
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Che On The Rocks

Herr Professor Mozart: please, don't exert yourself too much! Because since the Age of Joe, i already heard all the excuses.
Besides, i already saw this movie. Now, it cames the part of the diagnosis: "Argentina is not neoliberal enough". Then, it comes the part of the 'cure': "if neoliberalim doesn't do it, more neoliberalism will". Finally...
...well, you will see. I'm not going to spoil it for you. :cool:
-----------------
IMF to Mauricio Macri: "tax the rich, only a bit".
Argentina may freeze soybean tax cut program, farmers balk
Quote:
 
BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) - Argentina may halt the gradual lowering of soybean export taxes as the government speeds up its deficit-cutting effort, Treasury Minister Nicolas Dujovne said on Thursday, prompting push-back from farmers already hurting from a soy crop reduced by drought.
Read here, too.

Rich to Mauricio Macri: "no".
“Political Suicide”: Market Warns Against Argentina Soy Tax Proposal
Quote:
 
Agricultural market participants in Argentina have labelled a proposal to pause the gradual reduction in soybean export taxes and rumours that grain taxes may also be reinstated as “political suicide” that could accelerate grain sales.


Mauricio Macri: "then, i will apply more austerity".


Argentine People to Mauricio Macri & IMF: "váyanse a la mierda". :cool:
Argentines stage protest against decision to seek IMF help
Quote:
 
BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (AP) — Thousands of Argentines swarmed into the capital’s downtown Friday to protest the government seeking financial help from the International Monetary Fund.

Marching on the holiday commemorating the Revolucion de Mayo, which led to Argentina’s independence from Spain in 1816, demonstrators draped themselves in the white-and-sky blue national flag. They also held banners protesting high inflation and rises in fuel and transportation costs.
Quote:
 
“All of the policies that have been put in place since the beginning of this government are against the lower classes, the working classes and even against the middle classes,” said protester Marcos Mino. “The pressure that they (the government) are putting on us is really extreme.”
Posted Image
Thousands of people gather along 9 de Julio avenue, to protest against the government’s decision to seek economic help from the International Monetary Fund, in Buenos Aires, Argentina, Friday, May 25, 2018. President Mauricio Macri announced earlier this month that Argentina would start talks with the IMF and seek a credit line to finance his government. (AP Photo/Paul Byrne)

^^^That is +1M People on 9 de Julio avenue! Read here and here, too.

Extra pictures:
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^^^ "Macri + IMF = Misery"
Free Milagro Sala!
What happened to Santiago Maldonado?
What happened to ARA San Juan?
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Robert Stout
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Argentineans know that with IMF assistance comes cuts in pet hamster programs....I'm surprised that half of Argentina wasn't a the march to protect their free benefits................... :oyvey:
Jesus can raise the dead, but he can't fix stupid
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W A Mozart
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Mob rule in Argentina...

Hundreds of thousands to the streets demanding that "they" return to power and do, ....exactly, ....what? What is their plan here? More Cristina? More craziness? Take from "whomever" and give it to our power base? What economic philosophy is all of this based on? Turn Argentina into Venezuela, ...without any oil?

Wow.


Mozart
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Che On The Rocks

Mr. Robert Stout: when cornered, even "pet hamsters" bite. Or they vote for populists. :cool:
Herr Professor Mozart: you call it "mob rule". I call it Democracy. :cool:
-------------------
No Love Lost: A Brief History of Argentina and the IMF
Quote:
 
If you're wondering when and where this ill-fated love affair started, here are your answers.
Posted Image
Macri with IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde. (Photo: Mendoza Post)

Report: Government Not Suspending Reduction Grain Exports Taxes After All
Quote:
 
Government officials rejected the possibility during the weekend, after representatives of the agricultural sector went up in arms as a result of a rumor.
Posted Image
Image credit: Getty Images.

But:

UPDATE 2-Argentina raises biodiesel export tax to 15 percent
Quote:
 
BUENOS AIRES, May 28 (Reuters) - Argentina’s government is raising an export tax on biodiesel to 15 percent from 8 percent, effective July 1, according to a decree published in the official Gazette on Monday.
Read here, too.

Social Organizations Begin ‘Federal March’ to Protest Government Policies
Quote:
 
Barrios de Pie will stage marches and set up soup kitchens across the country throughout the week. Protesters will converge outside Congress on Friday
Posted Image
Photo via FM Capital Salta.

Investor shakeout in Turkey and Argentina: why it's happening
Quote:
 
Investors, chasing better returns in US dollars, have forced the two countries' currencies into free fall. The big question is whether the rout can threaten financial markets and the global economy medium-term.
Posted Image
Free Milagro Sala!
What happened to Santiago Maldonado?
What happened to ARA San Juan?
Mapuche Lives Matter!
Stop the political persecution in Argentina!
Stop the looting of Argentina!
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Robert Stout
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In Argentina, if you don't have a pot to piss in, you think your are an economic expert by marching down the street with big signs...... :lol:
Jesus can raise the dead, but he can't fix stupid
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Che On The Rocks

Mr. Robert Stout: in Argentina, if you are not a member of the Macri Regime, you have scant food for the pot. Mauricio Macri is a genius of dietetics!
--------------------
IMF Negotiations a “Third Blow” to Government
Quote:
 
If Macri’s popularity continues to deteriorate, Cambiemos may turn to “Plan V.”
Posted Image
Macri with Minister of the Economy Nicholas Dujovne. Photo: Política Digital.

The Federal March keeps going:
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Free Milagro Sala!
What happened to Santiago Maldonado?
What happened to ARA San Juan?
Mapuche Lives Matter!
Stop the political persecution in Argentina!
Stop the looting of Argentina!
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Robert Stout
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The photos indicate that Argentinians are not starving and would benefit from missing a few meals............ :biggrin:
Jesus can raise the dead, but he can't fix stupid
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Che On The Rocks

Mr. Robert Stout: the idea is protesting before of becoming capitalist Haitians (when nobody gives a crap, anymore). :cool:
--------------------------
Vidal Rules Out 2019 Presidential Bid
Quote:
 
Buenos Aires Governor lends support to imminent presidential veto of opposition bill capping utilities.
Posted Image
Buenos Aires Governor María Eugenia Vidal speaking at the AmCham conference last week. (Noticias Argentinas / Diego Astarita)

BA Governor Vidal: 'Nobody born poor in Argentina makes it to university'
Quote:
 
María Eugenia Vidal’s statements to the Rotary Club on Wednesday were met with dismay and disapproval.
Posted Image
Buenos Aires province Governor María Eugenia Vidal meets with residents during a round of door-knocking. Foto: Télam

Why Argentina's Leader Is in for a Tough 2019
Quote:
 
+Argentina’s request for a standby loan from the International Monetary Fund will force the country to carry out tighter fiscal measures, such as reducing the transfer of funds to the provinces.

+As a result of his decision to negotiate a deal with the IMF, President Mauricio Macri will have a more difficult time gaining congressional support for economic and labor reforms.

+Although divisions persist in Argentina’s political opposition, worsening economic conditions will encourage Macri's rivals in the next quarter, hurting the president's chances of winning re-election in 2019.
Posted Image

Financial MELTDOWN: Shock graph shows how Turkey and Argentina economies are DOOMED
Quote:
 
TURKEY and Argentina, two of the world's biggest emerging markets, have been plunged into economic turmoil, according to shock new figures.
Posted Image
This chart shows how badly Argentine and Turkish markets have been affected

‘Marcha Federal’ Concludes Today With Focus On Presidential Utilities Veto
Quote:
 
Social movements and unions heading to Plaza de Mayo to express their discontent.
Posted Image
The Marcha Federal concludes today at Plaza de Mayo. (Noticias Argentinas / Daniel Vides)
Read here, here and here, too.
Free Milagro Sala!
What happened to Santiago Maldonado?
What happened to ARA San Juan?
Mapuche Lives Matter!
Stop the political persecution in Argentina!
Stop the looting of Argentina!
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Robert Stout
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Argentinians should conserve their energy for the coming economic crash....They can't trade their picket signs for food...They can no longer convince anyone to loan them more money........... :shakeshead:
Jesus can raise the dead, but he can't fix stupid
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Che On The Rocks

Mr. Robert Stout: Argentines never do what they should. :cool:
-----------------------
Thousands of Argentines protest government economic policies
Quote:
 
BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (AP) — Tens of thousands of Argentines protested Friday against the government’s economic policies and its unpopular decision to seek help from the International Monetary Fund.

The “Federal March” began four days ago in various regions of the country and culminated in front of the presidential palace in a demonstration of growing social discontent. Demonstrators demanded laws that guarantee food, land and infrastructure projects for the poor and urged union leaders to call a nationwide strike to pressure the government.
Posted Image
People protest at Plaza de Mayo square overlooking the presidential Casa Rosada palace, against the government’s economic policies in Buenos Aires, Argentina, Friday, June 1, 2018. The demonstrators demanded laws guaranteeing food, land and infrastructure works for the poorest. (AP Photo/Victor Caivano)

Read the same news here and here.

Extra pictures:
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And more extra pictures yet at Getty Images.
Free Milagro Sala!
What happened to Santiago Maldonado?
What happened to ARA San Juan?
Mapuche Lives Matter!
Stop the political persecution in Argentina!
Stop the looting of Argentina!
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W A Mozart
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Wow. Look at all of those people in the streets!

Kinda reminds me of Venezuela about ten years ago. Go Hugo! You da man! Mob rule.


And the economic plan here for the salvation of the Argentinian economy is, .....what?

:popcorn:

Mozart
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Robert Stout
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The Argentinian's 5 year economic plan is to get Mo' money from the government.............. :nana:
Jesus can raise the dead, but he can't fix stupid
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W A Mozart
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Robert Stout
Jun 2 2018, 06:20 PM
The Argentinian's 5 year economic plan is to get Mo' money from the government.............. :nana:
This is an important point: Exactly what will the 'far' left-wing party of Argentina do once they attain power again? What's the plan here? They put hundreds of thousands of people in the streets, who bang drums, wave placards, dress in colorful outfits, sing/chant off-key and look for the nearest television camera's, yet NEVER put out an economic plan. "Here are our ideas....!" Nope. It's all Orwellian gobbledeguok. It's mob rule at its finest. (Kinda like the Nazi's, .... ;) ) We want power for the sake of power. When we win, we get to put ALL of our people into government jobs and the rest is, well, bupkis. Who cares? We have power! We won, you lost, go suck eggs......


Mozart
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Che On The Rocks

Herr Professor Mozart: ten years ago, in Venezuela, the "mob" praised Hugo. Today, in Argentina, the "mob" insults Macri. :cool:
Economic plan? I suppose, less Christine and more Cristina. :cool:
----------------
UPDATE 1-IMF says talks with Argentina for financing plan are 'well advanced'
Quote:
 
BUENOS AIRES, June 4 (Reuters) - Talks between Argentina and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a financing plan are “well advanced,” the Fund’s Western Hemisphere director Alejandro Werner said in a statement on Monday.


Argentina inflation rising, growth outlook lower -analysts
Quote:
 
BUENOS AIRES, June 4 (Reuters) - Analysts surveyed by Argentina’s central bank raised their median view of full-year 2018 inflation to 27.1 percent in May from 22 percent a month earlier and lowered their economic growth outlook to 1.3 percent from 2.5 percent, a poll showed on Monday.


Economic turbulence prompts re-election uncertainty for Macri
Quote:
 
The latest IPSOS Argentina survey in May found that Argentines are cutting personal spending and worrying about issues like the dollar and IMF deal. In this context, Macri has a 55-percent chance of re-election.
Posted Image
President Maurcio Macri addresses Argentina's economic woes during a May 16, 2018 press conference. Foto: Télam
Free Milagro Sala!
What happened to Santiago Maldonado?
What happened to ARA San Juan?
Mapuche Lives Matter!
Stop the political persecution in Argentina!
Stop the looting of Argentina!
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W A Mozart
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Che On The Rocks
Jun 5 2018, 04:24 AM
Herr Professor Mozart: ten years ago, in Venezuela, the "mob" praised Hugo. Today, in Argentina, the "mob" insults Macri. :cool:
Economic plan? I suppose, less Christine and more Cristina. :cool:
----------------
:popcorn:

Give me a day or two. I'll have to study what these people are implying.

An interesting an analysis!

Mozart
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Che On The Rocks

Herr Professor Mozart: no problem!
------------------
Jun 5, 2018 / MARTIN GUZMAN , JOSEPH E. STIGLITZ
The Roots of Argentina’s Surprise Crisis
Quote:
 
A change in macroeconomic policies will not be sufficient to set Argentina on a path of inclusive and sustained economic development. But, as last month's currency scare showed, abandoning the approach adopted by President Mauricio Macri's administration at the end of 2015 is a necessary step.
Posted Image
Free Milagro Sala!
What happened to Santiago Maldonado?
What happened to ARA San Juan?
Mapuche Lives Matter!
Stop the political persecution in Argentina!
Stop the looting of Argentina!
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Robert Stout
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Argentinians are like babies wanting their bottle back....It was never THEIR bottle to begin with................ :oyvey:
Jesus can raise the dead, but he can't fix stupid
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