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Argentina Crisis: Financial turmoil could spark market chaos, experts warn
Topic Started: May 16 2018, 05:14 AM (1,023 Views)
Che On The Rocks

Herr Professor Mozart: Cristina repaid all the debt with Venezuela by October of 2015. The bilateral trade was very favourable to Argentina.
So stop searching for excuses. Macri is responsible for Argentina's current crisis. :cool:
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Moyano Agrees to 25% Wage Increase for Teamsters
Quote:
 
Monday's strike still on; Tuesday and Wednesday's have been called off.
Posted Image
(Photo via Télam / José Romero)

^^^ IN YOUR FACE, MACRI! THANK YOU LORD FOR THE UNIONS!

Poverty Line in City of Buenos Aires Up by 2.7% in April
Quote:
 
Typical household requires AR $19,099 a month to escape poverty.
Posted Image
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Che On The Rocks

Argentina Quarterly Growth Slowed to 3.6% Before Peso Crisis
Quote:
 
+First-quarter GDP supported by a jump in construction, retail

+Odds of a recession this year have risen greatly, experts say


UPDATE 4-Argentine bonds rebound after touching lowest level of Macri's term
Quote:
 
BUENOS AIRES, June 19 (Reuters) - Argentine bonds touched their lowest levels of market-friendly President Mauricio Macri’s term on Tuesday, adding to weeks of losses during a run on the peso currency, but rebounded in a volatile trading session.
Quote:
 
The peso fell 0.4 percent to close at 27.80 per U.S. dollar on Tuesday, far from the record-low of 28.50 touched last week.


Argentina central bank hikes rate on 27-day Lebac notes to 47 pct
Posted Image
^^^ THAT IS MACRI, NOT CRISTINA, GENTLE READER!
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Che On The Rocks

Macri Cancels Appearance at Flag Day Event in Rosario
Quote:
 
"We don't want to give the violent people what they want," an official said.
https://youtu.be/7lRoVFdbBNc

IMF board approves $50 billion Argentina deal, disburses first payment
Quote:
 
BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) executive board approved a $50 billion (£37.9 billion) financing deal for Argentina on Wednesday and has disbursed the first tranche of $15 billion to the Argentine government, fund authorities said.
Quote:
 
Authorities plan to use half of the initial disbursement, or $7.5 billion, to finance the budget. The Treasury and Finance Ministry has said it will sell those funds on foreign exchange markets in daily pre-announced auctions.
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Robert Stout
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I can't remember when, if ever, Argentina had a stable currency............... :rollseyes:
Jesus can raise the dead, but he can't fix stupid
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Che On The Rocks

Mr. Robert Stout: well, technically, during the 1990s. The so called "convertibility". But in the long run, it was a iron life jacket.
Caputo's sayings in the above Reuters article are just wishful thinking.
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Candy! More (near) free candy for the Rich!
With Dollar Auctions, Government Puts IMF Money to Work Immediately
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US $100 million up for grabs daily for next 75 days
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Treasury Minister Nicolás Dujovne at a June 15 press conference, Buenos Aires. (Noticias Argentinas / Hugo Villalobos)

So, obviously:
Believe It Or Not, Wall Street Increasingly Likes Argentina-IMF Reboot
Quote:
 
+Financial contagion is the main threat to a successful IMF program.
+The peso depreciated around 12% in June and is down 48% year-to-date against the dollar.
Posted Image
Winning: Argentinian president Mauricio Macri faced a huge backlash at home for bringing back the much-maligned IMF to his country. Wall Street kinda loves him for it. Photo by Neil Hall - Pool/Getty Images.

Meanwhile, back at the real Argentina:

Unemployment Rate Rises to 9.1% in First Quarter of 2018
Quote:
 
It increased by 1.9 percent, compared to the previous period.
Posted Image
(Photo via La República)

Argentina posts $1.3 billion trade deficit in May
Posted Image
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Che On The Rocks

Argentina to grind to a halt Monday as unions' strike activity broadens
Quote:
 
Unions representing public transport workers have confirmed they will adhere to the CGT's strike on Monday. Leftist movements say they will cut access routes into Buenos Aires City.
Posted Image
The CGT union confederation rallies workers and social-political movements to strike on Monday June 25, 2018. Foto: Noticias Argentinas
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W A Mozart
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Munch, ....munch, ....munch... :popcorn:

Will Argentina survive this temporary downturn? This according to Che's Forbes article:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2018/06/21/believe-it-or-not-market-increasingly-likes-argentina-imf-reboot/#29dbc755688f
Quote:
 
What is going on? The Argentine peso is basically falling apart and on the cusp of hitting 30 pesos to the dollar. Most Argentinians convert it into dollars as fast as they can. The International Monetary Fund has come back to town and has thrown the government of president Mauricio Macri a $50 billion stand-by loan, in case of emergency. And the market consensus since the IMF returned is that Argentina will turn out okay. Despite the political risks of Macri losing his reelection bid in 2019, ushering in a return of Peronism and a quasi-socialist, semi-closed economy, investors are giving Argentina’s financial managers the benefit of the doubt.


The Argentinian Peso.

Rule 1 in basic economics: You cannot print/create boatloads of new currency without the supporting goods and services backing that currency up. Ya just can't. Budget deficits? ...print more money. Unions demanding higher wages? ...print more money. Pensions unable to sustain themselves? ...print more money. It's classic. It is the problem of MOST socialist/commie inspired governments. It's always been a third world problem, but it also affects large countries infested with commies as well. After inflation hits 1,000 percent and more, the commies scream, " t'wasn't our fault! No siree." I remember watching Italy in the 60's and 70's play this game year-after-year. It was hilarious. The Italian Lire would be allowed to "inflate" to 30, or 40 times its current value, then the government would step-in (the cause for all the problems) and knock-off two or three zero's from its valuation and then, ....then,...then start all over again! Print, print, print. Wash, spin, rinse, .....repeat. Argentina is doing exactly that. But, the government can't inflate the Dollar because that power lies in Washington DC, not Buenos Aires. The only legitimate currency in Argentina, sigh, is the US Dollar. The Peso has become like Monopoly money.

Che is overjoyed at the current economic crises. It means that he and the boys/girls may be back in power late next year. Sniff, ....sigh. It doesn't mean that the socialists/commies have better ideas, better economic policies. No. It simply means that they will have acquired 'power' again, to fill ALL of those government jobs with their people. We won, you lost, the rest of you can go suck eggs. Once in pwer, they will put into permanent place all of the financial impediments which causes economic misery for Argentina, for generations to come. Wash, spin, rinse, ...repeat. It is a sad state of affairs.....


Mozart
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W A Mozart
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Che On The Rocks
Jun 20 2018, 05:13 AM
Herr Professor Mozart: Cristina repaid all the debt with Venezuela by October of 2015. The bilateral trade was very favourable to Argentina.
So stop searching for excuses. Macri is responsible for Argentina's current crisis. :cool:
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Ah! Che, when will you ever learn? Herrn Professor Mozart is not to be trifled with. .... :shakeshead:

First, I actually looked-up the background of the "Boden 15," and what the botox Queen had done here. Let's revue what ACTUALLY happened, shall we?

http://en.mercopress.com/2015/10/03/argentina-will-pay-5.9bn-mature-boden-15-bonds-on-monday-and-issue-new-debt

Quote:
 
Argentina on Monday will pay the $5.9 billion maturity due for its Boden 15 bonds in cash and issue new debt the following day, Economy Minister Axel Kicillof said on Friday.


...."and issued new debt the following day." ..

Rather than going to the IMF and getting "reasonable interest rates," the botox Queen was willing to pay 8% for the new debt. (My point... :) )

And then...

Quote:
 
The Boden 15 payout means net reserves could drop as low as $8 billion.

Piedrahita said the dollar-strapped government whose mandate ends in December may be willing to pay a high price to shore up those low foreign reserves. President Cristina Fernandez's government has also printed new pesos to finance extra spending ahead of the October 25 election.

Fernandez “is leaving a financial bomb for the next president,” said Piedrahita.

Whoever wins the presidency will have to resolve the decade-long legal-battle with “holdout” bondholders who rejected the restructuring terms after Argentina's record default in 2002 in order to improve the government's financing options.

Next week Argentine banking officials are scheduled to meet with their Beijing counterparts to agree on a new currencies' swap which should help the central bank prop its depleted reserves.


...."leaving a financial time bomb for the next president." ....

That's the story here in a nutshell, ..... :)


Mozart
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jake58

W A Mozart
Jun 23 2018, 09:14 AM
Che On The Rocks
Jun 20 2018, 05:13 AM
Herr Professor Mozart: Cristina repaid all the debt with Venezuela by October of 2015. The bilateral trade was very favourable to Argentina.
So stop searching for excuses. Macri is responsible for Argentina's current crisis. :cool:
----------------
Ah! Che, when will you ever learn? Herrn Professor Mozart is not to be trifled with. .... :shakeshead:

First, I actually looked-up the background of the "Boden 15," and what the botox Queen had done here. Let's revue what ACTUALLY happened, shall we?

http://en.mercopress.com/2015/10/03/argentina-will-pay-5.9bn-mature-boden-15-bonds-on-monday-and-issue-new-debt

Quote:
 
Argentina on Monday will pay the $5.9 billion maturity due for its Boden 15 bonds in cash and issue new debt the following day, Economy Minister Axel Kicillof said on Friday.


...."and issued new debt the following day." ..

Rather than going to the IMF and getting "reasonable interest rates," the botox Queen was willing to pay 8% for the new debt. (My point... :) )

And then...

Quote:
 
The Boden 15 payout means net reserves could drop as low as $8 billion.

Piedrahita said the dollar-strapped government whose mandate ends in December may be willing to pay a high price to shore up those low foreign reserves. President Cristina Fernandez's government has also printed new pesos to finance extra spending ahead of the October 25 election.

Fernandez “is leaving a financial bomb for the next president,” said Piedrahita.

Whoever wins the presidency will have to resolve the decade-long legal-battle with “holdout” bondholders who rejected the restructuring terms after Argentina's record default in 2002 in order to improve the government's financing options.

Next week Argentine banking officials are scheduled to meet with their Beijing counterparts to agree on a new currencies' swap which should help the central bank prop its depleted reserves.


...."leaving a financial time bomb for the next president." ....

That's the story here in a nutshell, ..... :)


Mozart
Che's revisionist history falls flat again... did they ever catch Nisman's murderers?
That which can be asserted without evidence; can be dismissed without evidence- Christopher Hitchens
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Che On The Rocks

Herr Professor Mozart: are you kidding me? Cristina repays near 6 BILLION dollars, then issue 670 million dollars (Bonar 20 in 2015) and that is a "financial time bomb"? And that forces Macri to issue near 120 BILLION dollars (only Federal Treasury) since the beginning of his term, up until April 25, 2018?
Pleaseeeeee!!!!!! :cool:
Dear Jake: yes, i love you too. Ho ho ho ho! :cool:
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Ex-Wall Street trader feels the heat atop Argentina's central bank
Quote:
 
It wasn't a falling star Luis Caputo anticipated when he predicted just eight months ago that Argentina would prove the "star of emerging markets for the next 20 years."

But that's what the former JPMorgan Chase banker confronts now in his new role, after swapping the helm of the nation's Finance Ministry for that of its central bank. The 53-year-old is tasked with restoring the monetary authority's credibility after the currency posted the biggest drop in emerging markets and as stocks head for the worst year in almost a decade.

Goldman Sachs and Brown Brothers Harriman are among those raising warning flags about budget ballooning deficits, inflation running above 25 percent and an unconvincing plan of how they will deal with it all.
Posted Image
Argentine Finance Minister Luis Caputo during the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Washington on April 19, 2018.

^^^ HIS NAME IS TOTO AND HE IS JUST A PETTY CROOK.
Free Milagro Sala!
What happened to Santiago Maldonado?
What happened to ARA San Juan?
Mapuche Lives Matter!
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W A Mozart
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Quote:
 
Herr Professor Mozart: are you kidding me? Cristina repays near 6 BILLION dollars, then issue 670 million dollars (Bonar 20 in 2015) and that is a "financial time bomb"? And that forces Macri to issue near 120 BILLION dollars (only Federal Treasury) since the beginning of his term, up until April 25, 2018?
Pleaseeeeee!!!!!! :cool:


First, Cristina's economic actions in 2015 caused foreign reserves to drop to only 8 billion (real) dollars. THAT government, Cristina's, was unable to tap the international banking community for 'any' additional loans. She refused to deal with the "holdover bond people" from 2001 and brought Argentina to "third world" status. Kinda like Cuba on steroids. Yup, it was a "financial time bomb" that she left behind. Argentina was essentially, ....broke. Macri quickly fixed the problem with the "bond people," which opened-up new loans from major financial institutions. That's a good thing. Argentina re-joined the world. But, ...but, we do agree on one thing! (.... :) ) Why did Macri issue new debt to the tune of 120 billion bucks? I dunno. I don't know enough about the financial structure of Argentina to hazard a guess. What is the status of the pension funds? What is the current budget deficit? If Argentina is regularly printing 30% more Peso's than can be supported by the GDP growth, was an influx of (real) dollars, 120 B worth, needed to prop-up the economy? Ya gotta know ALL of the details here to make a comment. I don't. But generally I too am curious as to why Macri jumped into the debt markets in such a big way. He apparently got caught with his nuts in a vice, higher US interest rates and a disastrous soy bean harvest. By the way, NONE of this means that YOUR party's silly ideas are any better, ...ya know, ...just sayin,..... :)


Mozart
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Che On The Rocks

Herr Professor Mozart: Macri issued new debt to the tune of 120 billion bucks, simply because it's an excellent business for a few, privileged People.
Of course, to repay that mountain of money (plus the IMF's 50 billions) will be ruinous for the many Argentines. That will be a real financial time bomb for the next administration.
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Argentina anti-austerity strike brings country to standstill
Quote:
 
Argentina has been brought to a halt by a general strike, called by trade unions in protest against a $50bn International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan.

The General Confederation of Workers is also demanding salary hikes in line with inflation of nearly 30% a year.

Trains, buses and the underground system stopped in Buenos Aires. Access roads to the capital were blocked by activists.
Posted Image
Streets were empty throughout the day in Buenos Aires

Read the same news here, here, here, here, here, here and here.

Extra pictures:
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Bonus pictures, here.
Free Milagro Sala!
What happened to Santiago Maldonado?
What happened to ARA San Juan?
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W A Mozart
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Che On The Rocks
Jun 26 2018, 03:40 AM
Herr Professor Mozart: Macri issued new debt to the tune of 120 billion bucks, simply because it's an excellent business for a few, privileged People.
Of course, to repay that mountain of money (plus the IMF's 50 billions) will be ruinous for the many Argentines. That will be a real financial time bomb for the next administration.
------------
.
The issuance of new debt by Macri is something I can't comment on because I don't know what that borrowed money was being used for. It was obviously used to "jump start" the Argentinian economy. The borrowed money was also NOT used for 'far' left-wing groups in Argentina, as Cristina had done when her gaggle was in power. Anyone not part of that group, her group, is now categorized as the "privileged few." Still, I am curious as to what that money was/is being used for.

Second, ...

Quote:
 
..."The General Confederation of Workers is also demanding salary hikes in line with inflation of nearly 30% a year." ...


Right. Sure. That'll work. EVERYONE in Argentina should get a 30% raise! You betcha. That'll mean that next year, with inflation roaring at 60%, everyone will get a 60% raise in pay. Just keep those printing presses working 24/7. You'll need it. Pretty soon Argentina will look like, ....Venezuela!

Finally, showing people protesting on the streets doesn't show a logical progression of new ideas in Argentina. What do they want, ...outside of achieving power which allows them to pack the bureaucracies with their people again? What's the plan here? Who is writing the new economic ideas which we can all study and dissect? Mobs in the streets are meaningless.


Mozart
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jake58

che
 
Dear Jake: yes, i love you too. Ho ho ho ho!


I'm sorry, che, I'm happily married, and don't swing in that direction anyway.

That which can be asserted without evidence; can be dismissed without evidence- Christopher Hitchens
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Drudge X
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I heard the Falklands is doing really well.
Kate Steinle was separated from her family permanently but leftists didn't seem to mind.
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Robert Stout
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Argentina is such a failed State that Brazil should take it over....That is how bad it is................... :shakeshead:
Jesus can raise the dead, but he can't fix stupid
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Che On The Rocks

Herr Professor Mozart: 1) At the same time that Macri issued 120 billion dollars of new debt, the capital flight from Argentina to the World amounted to near 90 billion dollars. Oh, the "jump start".
2) The Argentine workers simply don't accept to be the scapegoats of Macri's epic fail.
3) The plan is to eat three meals each day. Mobs vote, too. :cool:
Dear Jake: congrats! Ho ho ho ho!
Bro: UK Government subsidies. Pet hamsters (@Robert Stout). :biggrin:
Mr. Robert Stout: and who should take charge of Brazil? :biggrin:
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Argentina posts $9.6 bln current account deficit in 1st quarter
Posted Image

Argentina sells Treasury notes for $761 mln -finance ministry
Posted Image

Argentina economy shrinks in April due to drought; central bank holds rate
Quote:
 
BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) - Argentina’s economy shrank in April for the first time in more than a year, government data showed on Tuesday, while the central bank held its policy rate stable at 40 percent in the first rate decision since a shakeup in its leadership.
^^^ Just a word: stagflation.
Free Milagro Sala!
What happened to Santiago Maldonado?
What happened to ARA San Juan?
Mapuche Lives Matter!
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Stop the looting of Argentina!
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estonianman
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Columbia is the only successful South American country

Because of capitalism

How many more examples of failure do we need?
MEEK AND MILD
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W A Mozart
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Che On The Rocks
Jun 27 2018, 05:46 AM
Herr Professor Mozart: 1) At the same time that Macri issued 120 billion dollars of new debt, the capital flight from Argentina to the World amounted to near 90 billion dollars. Oh, the "jump start".
2) The Argentine workers simply don't accept to be the scapegoats of Macri's epic fail.
3) The plan is to eat three meals each day. Mobs vote, too. :cool:
Dear Jake: congrats! Ho ho ho ho!
Bro: UK Government subsidies. Pet hamsters (@Robert Stout). :biggrin:
Mr. Robert Stout: and who should take charge of Brazil? :biggrin:
-------------------

Argentina economy shrinks in April due to drought; central bank holds rate
Quote:
 
BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) - Argentina’s economy shrank in April for the first time in more than a year, government data showed on Tuesday, while the central bank held its policy rate stable at 40 percent in the first rate decision since a shakeup in its leadership.
^^^ Just a word: stagflation.
A quick note here: (more later)

This was what was written in your Reuter's article:

Quote:
 
The 0.9 percent contraction in April from the same month a year ago came as the key agriculture sector plummeted 31 percent, according to government statistics agency Indec. That was a consequence of the country’s worst drought in years, which shriveled the country’s soy and corn crops.

It was the first negative monthly reading since February 2017. The economy shrank 2.7 percent in April from March.

Argentina is the world’s top exporter of soy meal and soy oil and one of the top shippers of corn and raw soybeans. Treasury Minister Nicolas Dujovne has said the drought will reduce 2018 growth by 1.5 percentage points of gross domestic product (GDP).



Drought.

Macri can't make it rain, at least not yet.

Mozart


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Hughmac

W A Mozart
Jun 23 2018, 08:47 AM
Rule 1 in basic economics: You cannot print/create boatloads of new currency without the supporting goods and services backing that currency up.
Um, explain QE again and the US Dollar :dunno: - H
H4T wrote: lobal] nuclear annihilation is preferable to the pre-Trump immigration/refugee policies.
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