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Argentina Crisis: Financial turmoil could spark market chaos, experts warn
Topic Started: May 16 2018, 05:14 AM (1,022 Views)
Robert Stout
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Hughmac
Jun 27 2018, 04:33 PM
W A Mozart
Jun 23 2018, 08:47 AM
Rule 1 in basic economics: You cannot print/create boatloads of new currency without the supporting goods and services backing that currency up.
Um, explain QE again and the US Dollar :dunno: - H
Rule 2 in basic economics.....Never buy Argentina government bonds............. :shakeshead:
Jesus can raise the dead, but he can't fix stupid
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Che On The Rocks

Herr Professor Mozart: we already were there. :) While a real problem, the drought is being used like a cover/excuse for more serious failures.
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The IMF is back in Argentina: “an economic and social crisis, even more serious than the present one, looms large on the horizon”
Quote:
 
1. The vicious circle of illegitimate debt grapples the Argentine people once again
2. IMF’s $ 50 billion loan surpasses Greece’s previous record

Sergio Ferrari from Berne, Switzerland interviewed Eric Toussaint, international debt specialist
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UPDATE 2-Argentina stocks fall most since 2014 amid emerging markets selloff
Quote:
 
BUENOS AIRES, June 27 (Reuters) - Argentina’s benchmark MerVal stock index closed down 8.8 percent on Wednesday, its worst daily performance since early 2014, as concerns about trade tensions between the United States and China prompted a selloff across emerging market assets.
Posted Image
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W A Mozart
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Hughmac
Jun 27 2018, 04:33 PM
W A Mozart
Jun 23 2018, 08:47 AM
Rule 1 in basic economics: You cannot print/create boatloads of new currency without the supporting goods and services backing that currency up.
Um, explain QE again and the US Dollar :dunno: - H
Whooooooaaa...!

Excellent point! Now that is a very interesting, and complex, topic to be covered on these pages. But, let's give it a try, and a brief overview. First, QE was an action undertaken by the Obama administration to 'kick-start' the economy after 2008. To make a very long story, ...very, very short, I would refer you to read this article: ...https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2016/08/24/the_fed_and_fiscal_policy_during_the_obama_years_102319.html

and this quote:

..."The Fed chose a policy of unprecedented monetary accommodation, which has substantially eased the way for massive federal borrowing during the Obama presidency." ...

The Obama administration used QE to "spend their way" out of a recession. They tacked on 10 trillion (with a 't') in debt and doomed the millennial's to pay it all back. The poor sods don't even know it yet, ..... :rotflmao: . Now, why didn't THIS action (QE) cause massive inflation in the US? Simple, we're not Argentina and we're not Pakistan. The liberals in the US Congress, and the Obama administration, correctly guessed that the US currency is the dominant player on the world stage. We can inflate, you can't. Lot's of places to spread excess currency around. We can print-till-the-cows-come-home, without the usual consequences, because it will be picked-up by other countries as their official currency. Obama and Ben Bernacke figured that out. If you live in Argentina, what would you rather hold, a US Dollar or an Argentinian Peso? Go ask Che, .... :) . Multiply that thought in third world governments around the world. Basic macro economics in a changing world.

That's as far as we need to go.


Mozart
Edited by W A Mozart, Jun 28 2018, 10:20 AM.
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Che On The Rocks

Recession Feared in Argentina as Cracks in Economy Grow
Quote:
 
+Economic data start to show losses from drought and peso rout
+It would be the 2nd recession since Macri took office in 2015
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Just 99 Years to Go as Argentine Century Bond Hits Record
Quote:
 
+Security sold a year ago hits 9.31 percent yield despite IMF
+Consensus is it will surpass 10 percent on global pressure
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UPDATE 1-Argentina central bank boosts dollar sales as peso slides
Quote:
 
BUENOS AIRES, June 28 (Reuters) - Argentina’s central bank auctioned $150 million on Thursday and will sell the same amount on Friday, the bank said in a statement, up from the $100 million in treasury funds offered in daily auctions that began last week.
Read here, too.
Beautiful! Toto does the same as Freddy, but with the IMF money! What could go wrong?
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Che On The Rocks

In the streets:

Study: Nearly Half of Argentina's Children Live in Poverty
Quote:
 
These numbers reveal an increase of 8 percent in childhood poverty in Argentina during the past year.
Posted Image
Argentina's President Mauricio Macri ended a program to provide laptops and educational technology to schoolchildren. | Photo: Reuters

Two Teachers Unions Call National Strike Following Police Repression in Chubut
Quote:
 
It will be the fifth national strike conducted by teachers this year.
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Robert Stout
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Everyone in Argentina wants free stuff from the government, but the government can't provide it without raising taxes on the "poor" and others who want free stuff....It is a tragic dilemma of Argentina............. :wah:
Jesus can raise the dead, but he can't fix stupid
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Che On The Rocks

Mr. Robert Stout: taxing the rich is out of question, naturally. :cool:
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UPDATE 3-Argentine central bank increases dollar sales as peso weakens
Quote:
 
BUENOS AIRES, June 29 (Reuters) - Argentina’s central bank sold a total $450 million to support the local peso on Friday, traders said, after the currency fell 3.7 percent to hit a new all-time low of 29.20 to the U.S. dollar.
Read here, too.

ARGENTINA: Merval Plummets 8.80% Due To Aversion To Local And Global Risk
Quote:
 
(RTTNews) - Merval, the main index of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange, ended Wednesday with a sharp drop of 8.80% to 25,965.99 points, recording the fourth consecutive decline. The expectations of a gloomy local and global economic scenario in the coming months affected the mood of investors.


In the streets:

Conicet Research Fellows Gathered Nationwide, Demanding Reversal of Macri’s Grant Freeze
Quote:
 
Yesterday, hundreds of research fellows at Conicet (National Council of Scientific and Techincal Research) gathered at scientific technology centers around the country to demand a raise in their research stipends. In the context of budget cuts (and sundry other economic belt-tightening), they want to their payment to be in-line with the rate of inflation. Sounds familiar.
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Researchers carry signs reading, “We don’t want to choose between leaving science or leaving the country” (Photo via El Tribuno)

Argentina's new bartering economy
Quote:
 
With the peso in a freefall, many Argentinians can't pay their bills and resort to an alternative economy: bartering. So-called "trugue markets" pop up all over the country
OH, AGAIN!
Edited by Che On The Rocks, Jun 30 2018, 05:24 AM.
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voted4reagan
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Just saying....

If the protesters in Argentina spent as much time working the country would be in far better shape...

Fact is that decades of a semi closed economic system has put Argentina in a deep hole that someone has to dig them out of...

Macri is that someone... and it's working...

Trump needs to focus more so on the male vote. He should have nationalized the Boy Scouts when they decided to admit girls.

Harambe4Trump AKA "FASHY"
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W A Mozart
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From Forbes on Friday:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanielparishflannery/2018/06/29/what-can-investors-expect-from-argentinas-economy-in-2018/#6a61a2251755

Quote:
 
Argentina's economy is caught in a trap. It's still unclear if voters will give President Mauricio Macri a chance to try and fix the serious structural economic problems he inherited from his predecessors. Argentina is a commodity dependent emerging market where for decades governments have tried to build a middle class society without ever fully modernizing the country's economy. Macri's immediate predecessor, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, is mostly remembered for her administration's problems with corruption and gross economic mismanagement. Venezuela is clearly the worst-managed economy in Latin America, but under Fernandez de Kirchner, Argentina bumbled it's way into the ignominious position of being the second most problematic economy in the region.


They got it right...


So, what's Macri's REAL problem? He needs to cut the spending, ....by a whopping 9 Billion dollars. That's Argentina's core problem, spending more money than they're taking in, resulting in massive inflation. You add a soy bean drought to the equation and you got real problems here. Che's mobs descend on the streets with ANY cuts to the budget, yet the Peso is dropping like a rock because of all the spending. No one cares. Give me mine, to hell with the rest.

...."Parish Flannery: What's your outlook? Are you optimistic that Macri is still going to help get Argentina's economy back on track?

Blanco: Three big problems include the fact that straight away Macri will have to find some $8.9 billion in further cuts this year alone to meet the revised fiscal deficit target of 2.7% of GDP, down from 3.2% previously. Inflation targets have been relaxed out to 2020. The target is now 17% for 2019, 13% for 2020 and 9% for 2021 meaning not only continued pressure on consumer incomes, but also a longer period of eye-wateringly high interest rates. Tight financing conditions, in turn, will weigh on private investment – and overall growth. Dujovne now expects real GDP growth of 1.4% this year and 1.5%-2.5% for 2019, down from initial expectations of over 3%." ...


:popcorn:


Mozart
Edited by W A Mozart, Jul 3 2018, 08:44 AM.
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Che On The Rocks

Mr. V4R: yeah! Macri is digging Argentina out! Through the Earth's core, straight to China!
P.S.: Uncle Tom's Cabin is an American novel, not an Argentine one. The protests will go on. :cool:
Herr Professor Mozart: Macri is in a zugzwang position, yes. By his own actions, more than "Cristina's mismanagement".
-------------------
Opinion from the left:
Argentina: Who will pay for the crisis, them or us?
Quote:
 
It was always clear that Argentine president Mauricio Macri governed for the rich and that his economic model would lead to a great crisis. The first affirmation was corroborated by the regressive redistribution of income perpetrated by his government over the last two years. The second has begun to be confirmed with the run on the peso during the last week of May 2018. An economic model based on huge external and tax imbalances payed for by external indebtedness is starting to totter. Everyone imagined that the financing would last until 2019, but the end of the film has come early in an unpredictable manner.


Opinion from the right:
Do cry for Argentina
Quote:
 
All is not well for the Argentine economy. Despite the recent approval of a $50 billion IMF support package and the maintenance of sky-high domestic interest rates, the Argentine peso is again in free fall as illustrated by a 7-percent drop in the currency last week.

This makes it all too likely that the Argentine economy will succumb once again to economic recession and that inflation will accelerate anew. It also heightens the chances that the Argentine government will soon fall out of compliance with its recently inked International Monetary Fund (IMF) program as its budget deficit widens.
Posted Image
© Getty Images
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Argentine Peso Jumps After Central Bank Acts to Reverse Sentiment
Quote:
 
+Central Bank raises bank reserve requirements, Lebac rates
+Government tells investors it won’t add capital controls
Posted Image

UPDATE 2-Argentina to sell one-year dollar Treasury notes -government
Quote:
 
BUENOS AIRES, July 2 (Reuters) - Argentina will launch an auction on Tuesday for dollar-denominated Treasury notes maturing on July 26, 2019, the Treasury Ministry said in a statement Monday.
^^^ SUPER DANGEROUS! The Macri Regime tries the dollarization of the Lebacs!

UPDATE 3-Argentina to cover some 2019 financing needs with domestic bonds
Quote:
 
BUENOS AIRES, July 3 (Reuters) - Argentina will need to raise a net $8 billion in the domestic debt market in 2019 to meet financing needs that include a $7.4 billion primary deficit and $25 billion in debt principal and interest payments, according to a Treasury Ministry document.
Quote:
 
Argentina announced on Monday that it would sell one-year, dollar-denominated Treasury notes, though it did not provide an amount. On Tuesday, it delayed the deadline for investors to present their offers to Thursday from Tuesday afternoon.


Will The Gov’t Increase Taxes on Overseas Flights and Impose New Ones on Credit Card Purchases Abroad? Dujovne Says No; Dietrich and Peña, Maybe
Quote:
 
The government is scrambling to find ways to reduce the both the fiscal and current account deficits, as well as retain dollars within the country, but it doesn’t seem to be finding consensus regarding the best means to do so. The most recent episode of the kind involves the possibility of increasing the taxes on overseas flights from seven to 15 percent – Macri had already increased them from five to seven percent in January 2017 – and implementing a 15 percent tax on credit card purchases made outside Argentine borders.
Posted Image
Nicolás Dujovne / Source: Urgente24
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Argentina: Amid Austerity Push, Macri Spent Nearly US$57M of Govt Funds to Fly Abroad
Quote:
 
The news comes at a time when Mauricio Macri has revealed more austerity measures, including freezing some of the government salaries and cut jobs.
Posted Image
The right-wing president's over two- year presidency has been marked by severe cuts to education, health, and other sectors. | Photo: Reuters

Argentina: Teachers March To Demand Wages Above Poverty Level
Quote:
 
Tuesday's march coincides with a one-day national strike by the teachers, which is the fifth so far this year in Argentina.
Posted Image
A teacher wears a Christine Lagarde mask during a protest at the Ministry of Education in Buenos Aires to demand better pay. | Photo: Reuters
Read here, too.

Argentine small businesses feel pinch as consumers tighten belts
Quote:
 
President Mauricio Macri's center-right government is struggling to stabilize inflation and reassure markets, but Argentina's small businesses are feeling the pinch in a climate of deep budget cuts and layoffs.

"There are days when not even one client comes in," says hair stylist Monica Pesce in the affluent Buenos Aires suburb of Belgrano.

"I came here because of the population density, I'm in a building with 37 apartments, but now everything is down, I have an empty hairdressing salon," said Pesce.
Posted Image
Hair stylist Monica Pesce, in her salon in the Buenos Aires suburb of Belgrano, on June 23, 2018
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Robert Stout
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The rich in Argentina are already taxed....Che wants to eat them....The best way to reduce deficits is to allow the poor to starve to death, lay off all the teachers and close the schools, charge demonstrators at protest marches an hourly fee, and not buy any more submarines............ :shakeshead:
Edited by Robert Stout, Jul 4 2018, 11:22 PM.
Jesus can raise the dead, but he can't fix stupid
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Che On The Rocks

Mr. Robert Stout: yes, that is Macri's endgame. :cool:
------------------
BCRA Report: Private Analysts Estimate the Inflation Rate Will Surpass 30% in 2018
Quote:
 
Private analysts estimate that this year’s inflation rate, on average, will be much higher than they expected the month before – and the previous ones before that – and will clock in at 30.3 percent, according to the latest monthly survey conducted by the Central Bank (BCRA), known as Relevamiento de Expectativas de Mercado (Survey of Market Expectations).
Posted Image

Argentine Lawmaker: 'Give Tips' to Combat Economic Crisis
Quote:
 
Elisa Carrio's remarks came after minister Dujovne addressed Congress to explain the country’s IMF deal and defend the government's economic policies.
Posted Image
Legislator Elisa Carrio, member of Macri's Cambiemos, or Let's Change, party. | Photo: EFE
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W A Mozart
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Che On The Rocks
Jul 5 2018, 05:36 AM
Mr. Robert Stout: yes, that is Macri's endgame. :cool:
------------------
BCRA Report: Private Analysts Estimate the Inflation Rate Will Surpass 30% in 2018
Quote:
 
Private analysts estimate that this year’s inflation rate, on average, will be much higher than they expected the month before – and the previous ones before that – and will clock in at 30.3 percent, according to the latest monthly survey conducted by the Central Bank (BCRA), known as Relevamiento de Expectativas de Mercado (Survey of Market Expectations).
Posted Image

Yes, indeed it will.

Thirty percent. And what can you, Che, the great economic prognosticator, do to lessen that 30% rate? Stop government spending!

By the way, I like your quoting Bubble, at least they're somewhat fair. But, ...but, do you see the dilemma here? You can't be posting stuff about HIGH inflation rates, at the same time posting two hundred thousand (fill in the blank here: _____) people in Buenos Aires demanding that the government spend more money on (fill in the blank here: ______).

Now, wasn't that simple? ... :)


Mozart
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Che On The Rocks

Herr Professor Mozart: i'm not "the great economic prognosticator", ha ha! I'm just a passenger on a ship that sank too many times. Che The Submariner. :biggrin:
And if you think that you can stop the protests lecturing People about orthodox theory of inflation, well, think again. This is Spar... err... Argentina! :biggrin:
-------------
Elisa Carrió Dragged on Twitter for Saying Poor People Need “Tips and Bribes”
Quote:
 
Elisa “Lilita” Carrió, one of the leaders of the Cambiemos coalition, has a penchant for unpredictability. After her outrageous comments about decriminalizing abortion, Carrió topped off the weekly controversy by saying that the middle class should continue to give poor people “tips and bribes.”
Posted Image
Demonstration outside of Congress following Carrio's comments (photo via Clarín)

UPDATE 2-Argentina sells $422 mln in Treasury notes, below expectations
Quote:
 
BUENOS AIRES, July 5 (Reuters) - Argentina sold $422 million in one-year, dollar-denominated Treasury notes at a nominal annual interest rate of 5.5 percent, the Treasury Ministry said on Thursday, in an auction that failed to meet market expectations.


Argentina's Macri forced to cancel independence day parade by military over wage dispute
Quote:
 
Argentina's Defense Ministry confirmed that this year's independence day parade in the nation's capital, scheduled for July 9, will not be held.

Sources confirmed that they were forced to suspend the event, traditionally held along Buenos Aires' upscale Libertador Avenue, due to generalized military discontent with President Mauricio Macri's proposed wage hikes of 8% for officers and 15% for junior personnel.
Posted Image
Last year's Argentine independence day parade in Buenos Aires.
Sharp budget cuts this year prompted the armed forces to rain on Macri's parade instead.
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Che On The Rocks

As inflation soars, Facebook drives trading in Argentina's barter clubs
Quote:
 
SAN MIGUEL, Argentina (Reuters) - At an abandoned train station in Buenos Aires’ working-class suburb of San Miguel, hundreds of Argentines gather with bags of clothes, rice, flour and sugar to trade.

Most are women, some accompanied by children. Cardboard signs with their names scrawled in black marker hang from strings around their necks. They walk slowly around the old concrete platform yelling out the names of people they had agreed to trade with in a forum on Facebook (FB.O).

They are the face of a resurgent but little-reported phenomenon in the suburbs surrounding the Argentine capital – barter clubs.

The clubs have tens of thousands of members and are attracting hundreds more every week. They have become an unofficial economic indicator, showing the toll that soaring inflation and high unemployment are exacting on South America’s second-biggest economy.
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Robert Stout
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Che On The Rocks
Jul 6 2018, 06:24 AM
As inflation soars, Facebook drives trading in Argentina's barter clubs
Quote:
 
SAN MIGUEL, Argentina (Reuters) - At an abandoned train station in Buenos Aires’ working-class suburb of San Miguel, hundreds of Argentines gather with bags of clothes, rice, flour and sugar to trade.

Most are women, some accompanied by children. Cardboard signs with their names scrawled in black marker hang from strings around their necks. They walk slowly around the old concrete platform yelling out the names of people they had agreed to trade with in a forum on Facebook (FB.O).

They are the face of a resurgent but little-reported phenomenon in the suburbs surrounding the Argentine capital – barter clubs.

The clubs have tens of thousands of members and are attracting hundreds more every week. They have become an unofficial economic indicator, showing the toll that soaring inflation and high unemployment are exacting on South America’s second-biggest economy.
Che will soon be willing to trade all the clothes he is wearing for a bag of rice.............. :wah:
Jesus can raise the dead, but he can't fix stupid
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W A Mozart
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Che On The Rocks
Jul 6 2018, 06:18 AM
Herr Professor Mozart: i'm not "the great economic prognosticator", ha ha! I'm just a passenger on a ship that sank too many times. Che The Submariner. :biggrin:
And if you think that you can stop the protests lecturing People about orthodox theory of inflation, well, think again. This is Spar... err... Argentina! :biggrin:
-------------
By implication, you are playing the role of a "great economic prognosticator." Yes, indeed. A South American prognosticator who has looked around other South American countries (er, Venezuela, .... :lol: ) and knows what works, and what doesn't. You are in affect saying that if Argentina were to bring back the Botox Queen, economic conditions and inflation would, ...., wait for it, ......improve. That's prognosticating, is it not? We have the solution for Argentina...! Another term consisting of a wrinkled old hag with a face caked-in three layers of plaster of Paris. Right. That'll work.... :popcorn:

Furthermore, if you put your silly Argentinian-made prognosticator cap on, (hint: it's in the closet) you would look around all of South America for "inspiring economies" and would find, ....nothing. Maybe Chile. Maybe Costa Rica. Perhaps Panama. Still, it's all kind of a yucky, stagnant state of affairs ...isn't it? A flippin economic mess/catastrophe from the Rio Grande to Cape Horn. Why is that? By many reports Argentina was more "well-off" one hundred years ago than it is today. Again, why is that?

Not only that, I was sipping morning coffee when I came across the final four for the World Cup. Not ONE South American team! What gives? Perhaps you people need to spend more time enjoying life itself rather than constantly making new political placards and wasting your time waving them to the few by-standers in the central squares. The kids need to spend more time in the soccer fields of Buenos Aires than marching around carrying goofy placards. Let Macri do his job. If you don't like him at the end of 2019, you can vote him out. fine and dandy. But, is there enough of a steady supply of botox in Argentina to sustain yet another reign of Cristina?

:popcorn:


Mozart
Edited by W A Mozart, Jul 8 2018, 08:12 AM.
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Che On The Rocks

W A Mozart
 
By implication, you are playing the role of a "great economic prognosticator." Yes, indeed. A South American prognosticator who has looked around other South American countries (er, Venezuela, .... :lol: ) and knows what works, and what doesn't. You are in affect saying that if Argentina were to bring back the Botox Queen, economic conditions and inflation would, ...., wait for it, ......improve.
Actually, i'm saying that Macri's economic policies are more or less the same as those of the last Dictatorship and the last neoliberal period (Menem+De la Rúa). And that if he goes on like them, he possibly will end like them.

W A Mozart
 
That's prognosticating, is it not?
Errr... it's more like remembering. :biggrin:

W A Mozart
 
We have the solution for Argentina...! Another term consisting of a wrinkled old hag with a face caked-in three layers of plaster of Paris. Right. That'll work.... :popcorn:
If Cristina -or someone like her- rise to power again, she will not find the same Argentina than 2003. “No man ever steps in the same river twice, for it’s not the same river and he’s not the same man.”
So, there are simply no guarantees. Only hopes.

W A Mozart
 
Furthermore, if you put your silly Argentinian-made prognosticator cap on, (hint: it's in the closet) you would look around all of South America for "inspiring economies" and would find, ....nothing. Maybe Chile. Maybe Costa Rica. Perhaps Panama. Still, it's all kind of a yucky, stagnant state of affairs ...isn't it? A flippin economic mess/catastrophe from the Rio Grande to Cape Horn. Why is that?
Because the majority of them are under right-wing, capitalist, pro-US governments now?

W A Mozart
 
By many reports Argentina was more "well-off" one hundred years ago than it is today. Again, why is that?
Because that never was?

W A Mozart
 
Not only that, I was sipping morning coffee when I came across the final four for the World Cup. Not ONE South American team! What gives?
Just a word: capitalism. :biggrin:

W A Mozart
 
Perhaps you people need to spend more time enjoying life itself rather than constantly making new political placards and wasting your time waving them to the few by-standers in the central squares. The kids need to spend more time in the soccer fields of Buenos Aires than marching around carrying goofy placards.
Resignation is a virtue or a vice?

W A Mozart
 
Let Macri do his job.
That is the thing: he is doing a crappy job.

W A Mozart
 
If you don't like him at the end of 2019, you can vote him out. fine and dandy. But, is there enough of a steady supply of botox in Argentina to sustain yet another reign of Cristina?
We will know very soon (1.25 years). :cool:
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