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Schiffy Boi
Topic Started: Mar 22 2016, 12:52 AM (1,387 Views)
Mr. Tik
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Before that site crashed earlier this month, Robertr2000 posted a thread featuring Peter Schiff warning us about an impending crash that would make 2008 look like a mere hiccup.

This precipitated a lively discussion between my good friend esto and myself.

Mr. Schiff was one of the three economist who predicted the crash in 2008.
Since then, Schiff has parlayed this into a career as a economic prognosticator.

My View
When I first was exposed to Mr Schiff back in 2009, I was impressed.
He seemed earnest and sincere and I had the impression that he was someone worth listening to.
And listened I did..

And slowly, my attitude towards him soured as I saw him make the same predictions over and over again..each scheduled to go down in the following year
Only to kick the can to the next year if his prediction didn't pan out..2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 on to his current warning that the dollar will collapse before the end of Obama's term.


http://www.etf.com/sections/features-and-news/4250-peter-schiff-dollar-collapse-before-obamas-out?nopaging=1

Posted Image

"Never mind my previous predictions..this one is for real..you'll see!"


I see him as a one hit wonder..an economic equivalent of a tacky TV evangelist.
On my first reply, I likened Schiff to E. Porter Stansberry..a crank economist who makes online infomercials in which he paints a scary picture of doom to sell his "investment strategies" that will despite the world going to hell in a handbasket, you can come out of it living large Robin Leach style.

Sure enough..a day or so after the pcom crashed, I came upon this..

http://realcrash2016.com/earthquake/?code=PTAOS393

Posted Image

BTW..it was Michael Burry who inspired "The Big Short", not Schiffy

Here..he does the Stansberry routine..predicting a catastrophic collapse that he hypes as the "Single Biggest Event In Human History"
Anarchy, societal breakdown, no police, rioting...
But then at the end...he kicks with the sale pitch..just buy his books, newsletters and other assorted swag

HOT: Turn Armageddon into a Personal Fortune on page 378…

https://orders.realcrash2016.com/TAO_SCHIFF_EXT_WEB/PTAOS393/index.htm?pageNumber=2

With the idea that Schiffs advice will not only help you survive the crash, but to come out of it RICH..

My good friend esto on the other hand, views Schiff as something of an oracle..by virtue of Schiff being steeped in Austrian Economics,
an economic ideology in which esto has much faith in.

But this isn't about Austrian economics..it is about whether Schiff is a reliable prognosticator, or a snake oil salesman milking his one accurate prediction for all it's worth.





You may be a conservative republican..if you are pro life until you get your mistress knocked up
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estonianman
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You deny the Austrian business cycle?

and more importantly - you deny that the US government has incredible means to prevent that cycle from coming around? temporarily for political power of course. This includes"

- Maintaining a petro-dollar
- Subjugating credit ratings
- Fixing the GDP, unemployment, CPI


Among other things.

that is about where we left off in that conversation ...
MEEK AND MILD
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Mr. Tik
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All I am denying is Peter Schiff's credibility.
You may be a conservative republican..if you are pro life until you get your mistress knocked up
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estonianman
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Adolph Hipster
Mar 22 2016, 01:35 AM
All I am denying is Peter Schiff's credibility.
Schiffy is simply using the Austrian business cycle as a template for his prediction. You are trying to challenge the credibility of the business cycle theory - good luck.

the cycle theory applies in all cases - with exception to global superpowers. Rome, the British empire and now the US use their monopolization of infrastructure, military, trade and currency to exert artificial forces on the cycle - thereby prolonging it.

Schiffy, nor any other Austrian economist can't accurately place predictions in the timeline with wildcards like quantitative easing, military distractions or negative interest rates. We chatted about this in the previous thread - but I do not believe Schiff placed a time and a date for the end of the cycle.

In every other country that isn't a superpower - the austrian cycle correctly predicts their demise. Europe, Venezuela - even Canada
Edited by estonianman, Mar 22 2016, 01:48 AM.
MEEK AND MILD
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Mr. Tik
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So..whats your story if his prediction for this collapse to occur before the end of Obama's term doesn't pan out?

Yabuts?

If it does happen, I will be the first one to admit that I was wrong.
You may be a conservative republican..if you are pro life until you get your mistress knocked up
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estonianman
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Adolph Hipster
Mar 22 2016, 01:50 AM
So..whats your story if his prediction for this collapse to occur before the end of Obama's term doesn't pan out?

Yabuts?

If it does happen, I will be the first one to admit that I was wrong.
Why should I have a story? you're thinking of that moron Gereld Celente that predicts a crash every financial quarter.

I think shiffy was unaware of how many tricks the FED could pull out of its sleeve - we all were. What has taken place in the last 8 years has been - unprecedented.
MEEK AND MILD
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Mr. Tik
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estonianman
Mar 22 2016, 01:58 AM
Adolph Hipster
Mar 22 2016, 01:50 AM
So..whats your story if his prediction for this collapse to occur before the end of Obama's term doesn't pan out?

Yabuts?

If it does happen, I will be the first one to admit that I was wrong.
Why should I have a story? you're thinking of that moron Gereld Celente that predicts a crash every financial quarter.

I think shiffy was unaware of how many tricks the FED could pull out of its sleeve - we all were. What has taken place in the last 8 years has been - unprecedented.
Schiff predicted a crash every year..from 2009 on.
You may be a conservative republican..if you are pro life until you get your mistress knocked up
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estonianman
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Adolph Hipster
Mar 22 2016, 02:04 AM
estonianman
Mar 22 2016, 01:58 AM
Adolph Hipster
Mar 22 2016, 01:50 AM
So..whats your story if his prediction for this collapse to occur before the end of Obama's term doesn't pan out?

Yabuts?

If it does happen, I will be the first one to admit that I was wrong.
Why should I have a story? you're thinking of that moron Gereld Celente that predicts a crash every financial quarter.

I think shiffy was unaware of how many tricks the FED could pull out of its sleeve - we all were. What has taken place in the last 8 years has been - unprecedented.
Schiff predicted a crash every year..from 2009 on.
Personally - I think the economy has been in a recession for most of the last 8 years.

MEEK AND MILD
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Mr. Tik
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estonianman
Mar 22 2016, 02:09 AM
Adolph Hipster
Mar 22 2016, 02:04 AM
estonianman
Mar 22 2016, 01:58 AM

Quoting limited to 3 levels deep
Schiff predicted a crash every year..from 2009 on.
Personally - I think the economy has been in a recession for most of the last 8 years.

Non sequitor
You may be a conservative republican..if you are pro life until you get your mistress knocked up
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estonianman
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Adolph Hipster
Mar 22 2016, 02:34 AM
estonianman
Mar 22 2016, 02:09 AM
Adolph Hipster
Mar 22 2016, 02:04 AM

Quoting limited to 3 levels deep
Personally - I think the economy has been in a recession for most of the last 8 years.

Non sequitor
Meaning the numbers are fixed.
MEEK AND MILD
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OffensivelyOpenMinded
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It will inevitably crash. The more we put off what needs to be done to turn this ship around, the worse it will be when they can no longer pull tricks to make it appear that everything is going fine and dandy. Hipster's opinion means diddly squat and all he is doing is trash talking.
Edited by OffensivelyOpenMinded, Mar 22 2016, 10:30 AM.
"The problem with having an open mind, of course, is that people will insist on coming along and putting things in it."
Terry Pratchett
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CautionaryTales
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OffensivelyOpenMinded
Mar 22 2016, 10:29 AM
It will inevitably crash. The more we put off what needs to be done to turn this ship around, the worse it will be when they can no longer pull tricks to make it appear that everything is going fine and dandy. Hipster's opinion means diddly squat and all he is doing is trash talking.
You need to invest in a mirror.


Have you paid your internet taxes?
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OffensivelyOpenMinded
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CautionaryTales
Mar 22 2016, 10:31 AM
OffensivelyOpenMinded
Mar 22 2016, 10:29 AM
It will inevitably crash. The more we put off what needs to be done to turn this ship around, the worse it will be when they can no longer pull tricks to make it appear that everything is going fine and dandy. Hipster's opinion means diddly squat and all he is doing is trash talking.
You need to invest in a mirror.
You shouldn't look into a mirror, for the mirror's sake.
"The problem with having an open mind, of course, is that people will insist on coming along and putting things in it."
Terry Pratchett
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CautionaryTales
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OffensivelyOpenMinded
Mar 22 2016, 10:41 AM
CautionaryTales
Mar 22 2016, 10:31 AM
OffensivelyOpenMinded
Mar 22 2016, 10:29 AM
It will inevitably crash. The more we put off what needs to be done to turn this ship around, the worse it will be when they can no longer pull tricks to make it appear that everything is going fine and dandy. Hipster's opinion means diddly squat and all he is doing is trash talking.
You need to invest in a mirror.
You shouldn't look into a mirror, for the mirror's sake.
Sorry to hear you had a bad experience with a mirror.


Have you paid your internet taxes?
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OffensivelyOpenMinded
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CautionaryTales
Mar 22 2016, 10:51 AM
OffensivelyOpenMinded
Mar 22 2016, 10:41 AM
CautionaryTales
Mar 22 2016, 10:31 AM

Quoting limited to 3 levels deep
You shouldn't look into a mirror, for the mirror's sake.
Sorry to hear you had a bad experience with a mirror.
I don't have that problem, my mirror feels sexier when my face is reflected in it.
"The problem with having an open mind, of course, is that people will insist on coming along and putting things in it."
Terry Pratchett
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Mr. Tik
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Esto is way too defensive on this thread..
I am not attacking his Austrian shibboleth..I am merely addressing the poor prediction record of an individual who obviously selling doom porn for personal profit.
This game is far from new..the TV evangelist have been milking this cow as far as I can remember


You may be a conservative republican..if you are pro life until you get your mistress knocked up
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OffensivelyOpenMinded
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Nobody has a crystal ball, but I will say this... There's more credibility to Austrian economic theorist's predictions than climate change scientists computer model's predictions, theyve a better track record for sure...so take from that what you will. Peter Schiff was right and he will be right again in the near future since we keep doing the same shit over and over. Collapse is on it's way. Can it turn around? Ermmmm maybe.
Edited by OffensivelyOpenMinded, Mar 22 2016, 04:02 PM.
"The problem with having an open mind, of course, is that people will insist on coming along and putting things in it."
Terry Pratchett
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Mr. Tik
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OffensivelyOpenMinded
Mar 22 2016, 04:01 PM
Peter Schiff was right and...
A broken clock is right twice a day :lol:

I don't know if you were around when we had a poster under the handle of "lightoftruth"
(Sadly, he passed away a few years back RIP)
Anywhoo...he made lots of predictions..most tanked..and yet when he did hit one, he carried on like he was some sort of cyber Nostradamus.

If one make a lot of predictions...sooner or later as per the law of averages, you are going to nail one or two.

Since he made his prediction with the 2008 debacle, Schiffy has been making time based predition
:the crash will come next year"
and as each year passes, he kicks the can to the next year

I predict that the dollar will not collapse before the end of Obama's terms and that Schiff will then set another deadline and use that to sell his swag.

And that esto will continue to make excuses about it. :rockon:
You may be a conservative republican..if you are pro life until you get your mistress knocked up
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OffensivelyOpenMinded
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It really isn't about Schiff, it's observable and already observed fact, Hipster.
"The problem with having an open mind, of course, is that people will insist on coming along and putting things in it."
Terry Pratchett
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Mr. Tik
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OffensivelyOpenMinded
Mar 22 2016, 04:15 PM
It really isn't about Schiff, it's observable and already observed fact, Hipster.
LOL
Ideologues are so gullible when the con artist speaks their cant.
You may be a conservative republican..if you are pro life until you get your mistress knocked up
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