Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]
Welcome to Perspectives. We hope you enjoy your visit.


You're currently viewing our forum as a guest. This means you are limited to certain areas of the board and there are some features you can't use. If you join our community, you'll be able to access member-only sections, and use many member-only features such as customizing your profile, sending personal messages, and voting in polls. Registration is simple, fast, and completely free.


Join our community!


If you're already a member please log in to your account to access all of our features:

Username:   Password:
Add Reply
Ann Coulter: Only Trump MIGHT WIN For Republicans.
Topic Started: Apr 7 2016, 02:07 PM (1,168 Views)
philly rabbit

The only question for Republicans is: Which candidate can win states that Mitt Romney lost?

Start with the fact that, before any vote is cast on Election Day, the Democrats have already won between 90 and 98 percent of the black vote and 60 to 75 percent of the Hispanic and Asian vote. Unless Republicans run the table on the white vote, they lose.

If there's still hope, it lies with Trump and only Trump. Donald Trump will do better with black and Hispanic voters than any other Republican. But it's with white voters that he really opens up the electoral map.

A Republican Party that wasn't intent on committing suicide would know that. But Stuart Stevens, the guy who lost a winnable presidential election in 2012, says it's impossible for Republicans to get one more white vote -- and the media are trying to convince the GOP that he's right.

Stevens says Romney tapped out every last white voter and still lost, so he says Republicans are looking for "the Lost Tribes of the Amazon" hoping to win more white votes: "In 1980, Ronald Reagan won 56 percent of white voters and won a landslide victory of 44 states. In 2012, Mitt Romney won 59 percent of whites and lost with 24 states."

Apparently, no one's told Stevens about the 50-state Electoral College. The national white vote is irrelevant. Presidential elections are won by winning states. (Only someone who got his ass kicked running an eminently electable candidate might not know this.)

Excluding third parties and breaking it down to a two-man race, Mitt Romney won 88 percent of the white vote in Mississippi, but only 40 percent of the white vote in Massachusetts. What sense does it make to talk about his national percentage of the white vote with disparities like that?

Romney lost the white vote to Obama in five crucial swing states: Maine (42 percent of the white vote), Minnesota (47 percent), New Hampshire (48 percent), Iowa (48 percent) and Wisconsin (49 percent). He only narrowly beat Obama's white vote in other important swing states -- Illinois (51 percent), Colorado (52 percent), Michigan (53 percent), Ohio (54 percent) and Pennsylvania (54 percent).

Increasing the white vote in these states gives Trump any number of paths to victory.

If Trump wins only the same states as Romney, but adds Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Illinois -- where Romney's white vote was below his national average -- Trump wins with 280 electoral votes. (Romney wasn't an ideal candidate in the industrial Midwest.)

Trump could lose any one of those states and make up for it by winning Minnesota and Wisconsin -- where Romney actually lost the white vote. Or he could lose two of those states but add victories in places outside the Rust Belt, where Romney's white vote was also below average, such as Colorado, Iowa, Maine and New Hampshire. (In 1992, Ross Perot came in second in Maine, beating George Bush.)

I haven't even mentioned Florida, where Trump recently trounced Stuart Stevens' dream candidate, Marco Rubio, a sitting senator -- and a Cuban! -- in a 20-point rout. Republican primary voters outnumbered Democratic primary voters in that election by more than half a million votes.

If Trump wins Florida, he needs to win only two or three of the 10 states where Romney either lost the white vote outright or won a smaller percentage of it than he did nationally.

Stevens' analysis assumes that there will be no new voters -- and, again, there isn't a mammal on the North American landmass who knows less about winning presidential elections than Stuart Stevens.

It's as if we're only allowed to divvy up the pile of voters from 2012. Unless you voted in 2012, you can't vote in 2016! Use it or lose it, buddy.

That's not how it works.

Trump is saying he'll bring in lots of new people, as he has throughout the primaries. In the Florida GOP primary, for example, Trump got nearly half a million more votes than Romney did in 2012 -- and about half a million new people voted. Trump may be wrong, but it's insane to say that it's impossible for him to bring out new voters.

What's impossible is for any Republican candidate, other than Trump, to win a single state Romney lost. Ted Cruz's corny speaking style is creepy to anyone who doesn't already agree with everything he says. He's the less likable, more hard-edged version of Romney. Every other Republican is, one way or another, a less attractive version of Romney.

Maybe 50 years of Third World immigration means it's too late, and even Trump can't win. But it's an absolute certainty that any other Republican will lose.

COPYRIGHT 2016 ANN COULTER
Proud Deplorable.
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
CautionaryTales
Member Avatar

Fact is, Trump has a sliver of a chance of winning... A very faint pulse. It is because he might be able to pry away some of the States that Romney lost to Obama is they are crazy enough to give in to his wacknobbery.
Cruz has zero chance to flip any States that Obama won, so he is pretty much a non starter.

Kasich is still the single Republican that could win the general election. That would be true if there weren't the Trump and the Cruz supporters ready to riot if they don't get their way.

So yeah... In an insane world, Trump has an improbable chance if half of the electorate goes brain dead.
Edited by CautionaryTales, Apr 7 2016, 02:20 PM.


Have you paid your internet taxes?
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
jazzyjeff

Can not buy into Annie's theory that Trump can do better with Hispanics, although I do think, assuming he wins the nomination he will soften his tone as far as deportation as he campaigns for the general. He has already reported such in that so called secret tape with the NY Times and also during a Sean Hannity interview where he said allowing them to stay versus deportation is negotiable.
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Harambe4Trump
Member Avatar

jazzyjeff
Apr 7 2016, 03:46 PM
Can not buy into Annie's theory that Trump can do better with Hispanics, although I do think, assuming he wins the nomination he will soften his tone as far as deportation as he campaigns for the general. He has already reported such in that so called secret tape with the NY Times and also during a Sean Hannity interview where he said allowing them to stay versus deportation is negotiable.
The key to Republican electoral victory is to get white people in Pennsyvlania and Michigan to vote like Anglos in Arizona.
Skipping leg day is the equivalent of a woman having an abortion. You're ashamed of it, and it was probably unnecessary.
#MAGA
#wallsnotwars
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Dem4life

If The Donald is the republican nominee (and I hope he is), he won't be getting my white vote. He's a horrible human being and those who support him should be ashamed of themselves...
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Harambe4Trump
Member Avatar

Dem4life
Apr 7 2016, 04:17 PM
If The Donald is the republican nominee (and I hope he is), he won't be getting my white vote. He's a horrible human being and those who support him should be ashamed of themselves...
Donald Trump is shameless ;)

And you are ashamed of being white so you don't count.
Skipping leg day is the equivalent of a woman having an abortion. You're ashamed of it, and it was probably unnecessary.
#MAGA
#wallsnotwars
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Dem4life

American Identitarian
Apr 7 2016, 04:22 PM
Dem4life
Apr 7 2016, 04:17 PM
If The Donald is the republican nominee (and I hope he is), he won't be getting my white vote. He's a horrible human being and those who support him should be ashamed of themselves...
Donald Trump is shameless ;)

And you are ashamed of being white so you don't count.
Why would I be ashamed of being white? I wouldn't want to be anything other than a white man in America. Easy peasy, lemon squeezy...
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Harambe4Trump
Member Avatar

Dem4life
Apr 7 2016, 04:23 PM
American Identitarian
Apr 7 2016, 04:22 PM
Dem4life
Apr 7 2016, 04:17 PM
If The Donald is the republican nominee (and I hope he is), he won't be getting my white vote. He's a horrible human being and those who support him should be ashamed of themselves...
Donald Trump is shameless ;)

And you are ashamed of being white so you don't count.
Why would I be ashamed of being white? I wouldn't want to be anything other than a white man in America. Easy peasy, lemon squeezy...
You're a liar.
Skipping leg day is the equivalent of a woman having an abortion. You're ashamed of it, and it was probably unnecessary.
#MAGA
#wallsnotwars
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Dem4life

American Identitarian
Apr 7 2016, 04:25 PM
Dem4life
Apr 7 2016, 04:23 PM
American Identitarian
Apr 7 2016, 04:22 PM

Quoting limited to 3 levels deep
Why would I be ashamed of being white? I wouldn't want to be anything other than a white man in America. Easy peasy, lemon squeezy...
You're a liar.
Why would I lie about that? How old are you...
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
CautionaryTales
Member Avatar

Dem4life
Apr 7 2016, 04:27 PM
American Identitarian
Apr 7 2016, 04:25 PM
Dem4life
Apr 7 2016, 04:23 PM

Quoting limited to 3 levels deep
You're a liar.
Why would I lie about that? How old are you...
The over under is twelve for our confused lil buddy.


Have you paid your internet taxes?
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
dcbl
Member Avatar
Good guys wear white hats
CautionaryTales
Apr 7 2016, 02:19 PM
Fact is, Trump has a sliver of a chance of winning... A very faint pulse. It is because he might be able to pry away some of the States that Romney lost to Obama is they are crazy enough to give in to his wacknobbery.
Cruz has zero chance to flip any States that Obama won, so he is pretty much a non starter.

Kasich is still the single Republican that could win the general election. That would be true if there weren't the Trump and the Cruz supporters ready to riot if they don't get their way.

So yeah... In an insane world, Trump has an improbable chance if half of the electorate goes brain dead.
Virginia

Florida

Ohio

Iowa

just for starters, Cruz would also be competitive in Nevada, Michigan and Colorado

Hillary is an awful candidate, she could lose to anybody
Republicans sign checks on the front, democrats sign them on the back…True story!
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
CautionaryTales
Member Avatar

dcbl
Apr 7 2016, 04:30 PM
CautionaryTales
Apr 7 2016, 02:19 PM
Fact is, Trump has a sliver of a chance of winning... A very faint pulse. It is because he might be able to pry away some of the States that Romney lost to Obama is they are crazy enough to give in to his wacknobbery.
Cruz has zero chance to flip any States that Obama won, so he is pretty much a non starter.

Kasich is still the single Republican that could win the general election. That would be true if there weren't the Trump and the Cruz supporters ready to riot if they don't get their way.

So yeah... In an insane world, Trump has an improbable chance if half of the electorate goes brain dead.
Virginia

Florida

Ohio

Iowa

just for starters, Cruz would also be competitive in Nevada, Michigan and Colorado

Hillary is an awful candidate, she could lose to anybody
Should give you some awesome bragging rights come November..


Have you paid your internet taxes?
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
nNeo

Polls say exactly the opposite. Trump gets crushed by either democrat.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html

Kasich does better than Trump or Cruz, beating Clinton soundly, or a horse race with Sanders.

Of course November is a long way off, and polls are not a sure thing, especially this cycle. Still, Trump's negatives are so high, it would be very hard for him to go all the way.
“Strong people don’t need strong leaders.”
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Deleted User
Deleted User

Yep. Only 'pub I'm concerned about is Kasich. Can't make a case for him bein' a nut job, just a con :biggrin:
Quote Post Goto Top
 
philly rabbit

Dem4life
Apr 7 2016, 04:17 PM
If The Donald is the republican nominee (and I hope he is), he won't be getting my white vote. He's a horrible human being and those who support him should be ashamed of themselves...
No you don't.
Proud Deplorable.
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Deleted User
Deleted User

philly rabbit
Apr 8 2016, 01:13 PM
Dem4life
Apr 7 2016, 04:17 PM
If The Donald is the republican nominee (and I hope he is), he won't be getting my white vote. He's a horrible human being and those who support him should be ashamed of themselves...
No you don't.
Yes, he does. Cuz either Sanders or Clinton will embarrass him.

Quote Post Goto Top
 
philly rabbit

nNeo
Apr 7 2016, 05:13 PM
Polls say exactly the opposite. Trump gets crushed by either democrat.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html

Kasich does better than Trump or Cruz, beating Clinton soundly, or a horse race with Sanders.

Of course November is a long way off, and polls are not a sure thing, especially this cycle. Still, Trump's negatives are so high, it would be very hard for him to go all the way.
He hasn't even started his campaign against Hillary yet. Your poll is a straw man.

With Hillary's shock troops coming out of the woodwork for the general, and they aren't even voting in the primaries because they know Hillary has it rapped up, there isn't a single republican candidate who could beat her including Cruz who's being used right now by the republicans to get rid of Trump.

The only candidate who has a decent shot is Trump .. unless your people stop his nomination at your convention, that is.
Proud Deplorable.
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Tsalagi
Member Avatar

philly rabbit
Apr 8 2016, 01:19 PM
nNeo
Apr 7 2016, 05:13 PM
Polls say exactly the opposite. Trump gets crushed by either democrat.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html

Kasich does better than Trump or Cruz, beating Clinton soundly, or a horse race with Sanders.

Of course November is a long way off, and polls are not a sure thing, especially this cycle. Still, Trump's negatives are so high, it would be very hard for him to go all the way.
He hasn't even started his campaign against Hillary yet. Your poll is a straw man.

With Hillary's shock troops coming out of the woodwork for the general, and they aren't even voting in the primaries because they know Hillary has it rapped up, there isn't a single republican candidate who could beat her including Cruz who's being used right now by the republicans to get rid of Trump.

The only candidate who has a decent shot is Trump .. unless your people stop his nomination at your convention, that is.
Decent shot, at what?...His PR is absolutely the worst in history with youth, women, and minorities, even in many cases senior citizens, every poll says so. His negatives far outweigh any positives (and I say that while gagging) he might have.

Your one saving grade is white voters, and 1/3 of those will vote Democrat, with a large 1/3 swing vote which Trump isn't even going to get...so I don't know where you think Trump had a chance?
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
philly rabbit

Tsalagi
Apr 8 2016, 01:29 PM
philly rabbit
Apr 8 2016, 01:19 PM
nNeo
Apr 7 2016, 05:13 PM
Polls say exactly the opposite. Trump gets crushed by either democrat.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html

Kasich does better than Trump or Cruz, beating Clinton soundly, or a horse race with Sanders.

Of course November is a long way off, and polls are not a sure thing, especially this cycle. Still, Trump's negatives are so high, it would be very hard for him to go all the way.
He hasn't even started his campaign against Hillary yet. Your poll is a straw man.

With Hillary's shock troops coming out of the woodwork for the general, and they aren't even voting in the primaries because they know Hillary has it rapped up, there isn't a single republican candidate who could beat her including Cruz who's being used right now by the republicans to get rid of Trump.

The only candidate who has a decent shot is Trump .. unless your people stop his nomination at your convention, that is.
Decent shot, at what?...His PR is absolutely the worst in history with youth, women, and minorities, even in many cases senior citizens, every poll says so. His negatives far outweigh any positives (and I say that while gagging) he might have.

Your one saving grade is white voters, and 1/3 of those will vote Democrat, with a large 1/3 swing vote which Trump isn't even going to get...so I don't know where you think Trump had a chance?
Are you currently supporting Ted Cruz?
Proud Deplorable.
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Zon
Member Avatar

Frankly, if you'd put a gun to my head and forced me to choose between Trump or Cruz, I'd choose Trump.

Trump is just nuts, not a religious zealous nut.
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
ZetaBoards - Free Forum Hosting
Free Forums. Reliable service with over 8 years of experience.
Learn More · Sign-up for Free
Go to Next Page
« Previous Topic · Op EDITORIALS: personal & political governance · Next Topic »
Add Reply