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Exit polls: Nearly half of W.Va. Sanders backers would vote Trump
Topic Started: May 10 2016, 09:02 PM (536 Views)
Eddo26
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http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/279430-nearly-half-of-sanders-voters-in-west-virginia-would-vote

We believe only what we want to believe.
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Two a.m.
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A few things to note:

1) ABC exit polls have significantly different results

2) This is not particularly unusual behavior in West Virginia which has very odd party affiliation trends. The state is chock full of tons of Democrats who significantly outnumber Republicans - but who also routinely abandon their party. Traditionally, it has the highest party defection rate in the nation. There was no 2012 exit polling but in 2008, 31 percent of Democrats defected from Obama in the general election. By contrast, the national defection rate for Democrats was 11 percent.

3) People always talk bigger in primary polls than they will act in the general election.

4) It's an open primary with the GOP race already decided. Trump told people to not even bother voting. That means you've got more Republicans crossing over.

Overall, this figure sounds far more impressive than it is.
"The stars can be near or distant, according as we need them." - George Orwell, 1984
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Harambe4Trump
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Congratulations Bernie
Skipping leg day is the equivalent of a woman having an abortion. You're ashamed of it, and it was probably unnecessary.
#MAGA
#wallsnotwars
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Katoblue
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Eddo36
May 10 2016, 09:02 PM
W Virginia hates Killary in all parties.. right, left, and middle.. ;)
Killary, DNC, Obummer's DOJ and FBI all Lied and Spied and Good People Died!
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jake58

W VA is not a swing state and isn't going to make or break the election. I doubt anyone outside of d4l and maybe buck really thinks Hillary is going to take it in the general, especially given her comments on the coal industry.
That which can be asserted without evidence; can be dismissed without evidence- Christopher Hitchens
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clone
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Director @ Center for Advanced Memetic Warfare
Two a.m.
May 10 2016, 09:24 PM
A few things to note:

1) ABC exit polls have significantly different results

2) This is not particularly unusual behavior in West Virginia which has very odd party affiliation trends. The state is chock full of tons of Democrats who significantly outnumber Republicans - but who also routinely abandon their party. Traditionally, it has the highest party defection rate in the nation. There was no 2012 exit polling but in 2008, 31 percent of Democrats defected from Obama in the general election. By contrast, the national defection rate for Democrats was 11 percent.

3) People always talk bigger in primary polls than they will act in the general election.

4) It's an open primary with the GOP race already decided. Trump told people to not even bother voting. That means you've got more Republicans crossing over.

Overall, this figure sounds far more impressive than it is.
^^^Sycophant....
Only liberals can choose not to go down the road to widespread, systematic violence.
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Two a.m.
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clone
May 10 2016, 09:50 PM
Two a.m.
May 10 2016, 09:24 PM
A few things to note:

1) ABC exit polls have significantly different results

2) This is not particularly unusual behavior in West Virginia which has very odd party affiliation trends. The state is chock full of tons of Democrats who significantly outnumber Republicans - but who also routinely abandon their party. Traditionally, it has the highest party defection rate in the nation. There was no 2012 exit polling but in 2008, 31 percent of Democrats defected from Obama in the general election. By contrast, the national defection rate for Democrats was 11 percent.

3) People always talk bigger in primary polls than they will act in the general election.

4) It's an open primary with the GOP race already decided. Trump told people to not even bother voting. That means you've got more Republicans crossing over.

Overall, this figure sounds far more impressive than it is.
^^^Sycophant....

I'm sorry the facts don't please you. Feel free to dispute them.

Oh, wait, you can't because they are correct.
"The stars can be near or distant, according as we need them." - George Orwell, 1984
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Mr. Tik
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Two a.m.
May 10 2016, 11:06 PM
clone
May 10 2016, 09:50 PM
Two a.m.
May 10 2016, 09:24 PM
A few things to note:

1) ABC exit polls have significantly different results

2) This is not particularly unusual behavior in West Virginia which has very odd party affiliation trends. The state is chock full of tons of Democrats who significantly outnumber Republicans - but who also routinely abandon their party. Traditionally, it has the highest party defection rate in the nation. There was no 2012 exit polling but in 2008, 31 percent of Democrats defected from Obama in the general election. By contrast, the national defection rate for Democrats was 11 percent.

3) People always talk bigger in primary polls than they will act in the general election.

4) It's an open primary with the GOP race already decided. Trump told people to not even bother voting. That means you've got more Republicans crossing over.

Overall, this figure sounds far more impressive than it is.
^^^Sycophant....

I'm sorry the facts don't please you. Feel free to dispute them.

Oh, wait, you can't because they are correct.
At this very moment, clone is looking for an appropriate meme
You may be a conservative republican..if you are pro life until you get your mistress knocked up
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Eddo26
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Two a.m.
May 10 2016, 09:24 PM
A few things to note:

1) ABC exit polls have significantly different results

2) This is not particularly unusual behavior in West Virginia which has very odd party affiliation trends. The state is chock full of tons of Democrats who significantly outnumber Republicans - but who also routinely abandon their party. Traditionally, it has the highest party defection rate in the nation. There was no 2012 exit polling but in 2008, 31 percent of Democrats defected from Obama in the general election. By contrast, the national defection rate for Democrats was 11 percent.

3) People always talk bigger in primary polls than they will act in the general election.

4) It's an open primary with the GOP race already decided. Trump told people to not even bother voting. That means you've got more Republicans crossing over.

Overall, this figure sounds far more impressive than it is.
ABC poll asked ALL Democrat primary voters, not just Sanders supporters. And in that poll, less than half of Democrat voters in the primary are voting for Clinton in general election. Rest of what you said is just speculation.
Edited by Eddo26, May 11 2016, 02:09 AM.
We believe only what we want to believe.
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Two a.m.
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Eddo36
May 11 2016, 02:04 AM
Two a.m.
May 10 2016, 09:24 PM
A few things to note:

1) ABC exit polls have significantly different results

2) This is not particularly unusual behavior in West Virginia which has very odd party affiliation trends. The state is chock full of tons of Democrats who significantly outnumber Republicans - but who also routinely abandon their party. Traditionally, it has the highest party defection rate in the nation. There was no 2012 exit polling but in 2008, 31 percent of Democrats defected from Obama in the general election. By contrast, the national defection rate for Democrats was 11 percent.

3) People always talk bigger in primary polls than they will act in the general election.

4) It's an open primary with the GOP race already decided. Trump told people to not even bother voting. That means you've got more Republicans crossing over.

Overall, this figure sounds far more impressive than it is.
ABC poll asked ALL Democrat primary voters, not just Sanders supporters. And in that poll, less than half of Democrat voters in the primary are voting for Clinton in general election. Rest of what you said is just speculation.
The exit polling numbers I quoted from 2008 are not speculation. They are actual exit polling numbers from 2008.

Calling a fact speculation does not make it any less factual.
Edited by Two a.m., May 11 2016, 03:01 AM.
"The stars can be near or distant, according as we need them." - George Orwell, 1984
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Eddo26
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Two a.m.
May 11 2016, 03:00 AM
Eddo36
May 11 2016, 02:04 AM
Two a.m.
May 10 2016, 09:24 PM
A few things to note:

1) ABC exit polls have significantly different results

2) This is not particularly unusual behavior in West Virginia which has very odd party affiliation trends. The state is chock full of tons of Democrats who significantly outnumber Republicans - but who also routinely abandon their party. Traditionally, it has the highest party defection rate in the nation. There was no 2012 exit polling but in 2008, 31 percent of Democrats defected from Obama in the general election. By contrast, the national defection rate for Democrats was 11 percent.

3) People always talk bigger in primary polls than they will act in the general election.

4) It's an open primary with the GOP race already decided. Trump told people to not even bother voting. That means you've got more Republicans crossing over.

Overall, this figure sounds far more impressive than it is.
ABC poll asked ALL Democrat primary voters, not just Sanders supporters. And in that poll, less than half of Democrat voters in the primary are voting for Clinton in general election. Rest of what you said is just speculation.
The exit polling numbers I quoted from 2008 are not speculation. They are actual exit polling numbers from 2008.

Calling a fact speculation does not make it any less factual.
Well in 2008 Clinton defeated Obama in that state.
We believe only what we want to believe.
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Two a.m.
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Eddo36
May 11 2016, 04:40 AM
Two a.m.
May 11 2016, 03:00 AM
Eddo36
May 11 2016, 02:04 AM

Quoting limited to 3 levels deep
The exit polling numbers I quoted from 2008 are not speculation. They are actual exit polling numbers from 2008.

Calling a fact speculation does not make it any less factual.
Well in 2008 Clinton defeated Obama in that state.
Correct.

What's your point?
"The stars can be near or distant, according as we need them." - George Orwell, 1984
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CautionaryTales
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Trump has already won his primary. WV has an open primary. Trump voters crossed over to vote for Sanders because they want nothing to do with Clinton in the general election.


Think of it as "garbage time" in a football game where the outcome is certain and players are padding a statistic, not playing for a win.
Edited by CautionaryTales, May 11 2016, 04:54 AM.


Have you paid your internet taxes?
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Eddo26
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Two a.m.
May 11 2016, 04:42 AM
Eddo36
May 11 2016, 04:40 AM
Two a.m.
May 11 2016, 03:00 AM

Quoting limited to 3 levels deep
Well in 2008 Clinton defeated Obama in that state.
Correct.

What's your point?
Point is that your 2008 voting info is out of date.
We believe only what we want to believe.
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Two a.m.
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Eddo36
May 11 2016, 05:18 AM
Two a.m.
May 11 2016, 04:42 AM
Eddo36
May 11 2016, 04:40 AM

Quoting limited to 3 levels deep
Correct.

What's your point?
Point is that your 2008 voting info is out of date.

No, it isn't. West Virginians are conservative. They voted for Hillary in 2008 as a protest against the liberal Obama. Even in 2012, 41 percent of the state's Democratic electorate cast a vote for a guy in jail no one had heard of rather than Obama. This year, they are again rejecting Obama because he's too liberal for them. Hillary is his representative. Sanders is a protest vote.

This is borne out by exit polls which found that those who wanted LESS LIBERAL policies backed Sanders overwhelmingly - more than 2-1.

These people don't support Sanders. Most won't vote for him in a general election. He's a socialist. They have no interest in that. Neither will they vote for Clinton. They are merely protest voting like usual.

http://www.vox.com/2016/5/11/11652234/hillary-clinton-west-virginia

Edited by Two a.m., May 11 2016, 08:47 PM.
"The stars can be near or distant, according as we need them." - George Orwell, 1984
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