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| Nate Silver: Numbers show system not "rigged" against Sanders | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: May 27 2016, 01:30 PM (385 Views) | |
| Two a.m. | May 27 2016, 01:30 PM Post #1 |
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-system-isnt-rigged-against-sanders/ Sanders fans have claimed that because caucuses have lower turnout the current national caucus and primary vote underrates how well Sanders is doing. In fact, the opposite is true. When we switch all caucuses over to primaries, Sanders actually does worse. Clinton’s lead in the popular vote would grow from 2.9 to 3.3 million votes. Moreover, her edge in elected delegates would expand significantly.7 Instead of her current lead of 272 elected delegates, Clinton would be ahead by 424.8 Some states that were won by Sanders in caucuses, including Colorado and Minnesota, would be won by Clinton in primaries, according to our calculations. --- Realistically, if you throw everything together, the math suggests that Sanders doesn’t have much to complain about. If the Democratic nomination were open to as many Democrats as possible — through closed primaries — Clinton would be dominating Sanders. And if the nomination were open to as many voters as possible — through open primaries — she’d still be winning. |
| "The stars can be near or distant, according as we need them." - George Orwell, 1984 | |
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| lucash | May 27 2016, 01:50 PM Post #2 |
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#NeverTrump
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Good for him, he has an opinion and a questionable methodology. Glad he gets to work a job and dow whatever his employers tell him. |
| "...a mesmerized state that makes us accept as inevitable that which is detrimental...having lost the will..to demand...good..." - Rachel Carson | |
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| dcbl | May 27 2016, 01:53 PM Post #3 |
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Good guys wear white hats
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the system was never rigged against Bernie he is doing as well as he is for 2 reasons: 1 - he has a fiercely loyal group of supporters 2 - his opponent is very unpopular Furthermore, he would have zero shot in a general election. Sure, his numbers are strong now in hypothetical polling match-ups; but they would drop quickly if he were ever really attacked on many of his "outside of the mainstream" actions and views both sides have nominated a bad candidate and this election is very fluid - this one REALLY could go either way... as things stand now, advantage Trump because of the disharmony on the left. I expect that to change though As much as things change, it's amazing how much the same things stay Florida & Ohio Maybe even Virginia & Iowa those 4 states, more than any others, will likely decide this election |
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Republicans sign checks on the front, democrats sign them on the back…True story! | |
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| lucash | May 27 2016, 01:59 PM Post #4 |
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#NeverTrump
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Regardless of whether it is or is not rigged against Sanders isn't the issue, because ultimately the system is rigged to favor whoever the establishment prefers. That's one of the ways they can retain power, money, and influence. If the Dems stripped away the silly super delegates and simply voted straight up on popular vote, then folks may actually trust them. It would be a meaningful reform of a widely derided system. At that point, all that would need to be done is to just show people who these establishment types are, the corruption, favoritism, nepotism, etc. |
| "...a mesmerized state that makes us accept as inevitable that which is detrimental...having lost the will..to demand...good..." - Rachel Carson | |
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| Two a.m. | May 27 2016, 02:00 PM Post #5 |
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He has numbers and the ability to understand things by putting aside his bias. Two things many Sanders supporters could use. |
| "The stars can be near or distant, according as we need them." - George Orwell, 1984 | |
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| Two a.m. | May 27 2016, 02:06 PM Post #6 |
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I agree fully. Bernie Sanders' attempt to use the superdelegates to override the expressed will of the voters is wrong and anti-democratic. We should all band together to stop Sanders and eliminate superdelegates in the future so that other candidates like Sanders can't employ them to corrupt the democratic process in the way he is attempting. Edited by Two a.m., May 27 2016, 02:07 PM.
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| "The stars can be near or distant, according as we need them." - George Orwell, 1984 | |
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| nNeo | May 27 2016, 02:44 PM Post #7 |
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Hillary is winning. If you eliminate super delegates, Hillary is winning. If you eliminate the delegate system entirely, Hillary is winning. There are lots of people who dislike her for various reasons, some real, some imagined, but reality is that more people have voted for her this election cycle than for any other candidate. I'm not sure how that's "rigged". Voters are checking the box beside her name. |
| “Strong people don’t need strong leaders.” | |
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3:24 PM Jul 11